Central Ohio Wx
Member
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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
When was the last 15% tor? Definitely had to be spring 2025. Also that wording with no broyles, oof.
bckhd2
Member
Does anyone have a link to the SPC site where they break the outlooks down by state? Trying to check in on some areas
Buckle up north Illinois. It's going to be a doozy. Praying that there's not loss of life this evening and night. I think we are going to see some nasty radar velocities.
Moderate to locally strong instability, steep mid-level lapse rates,
and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to a very favorable
environment for significant severe potential. Very large hail (2+
inches in diameter) will be possible with initial supercells.
Effective SRH and related low-level shear will markedly increase
around 11/00Z and later in tandem with the strengthening low-level
jet. The supercellular tornado threat is likewise expected to
quickly increase through the late afternoon/evening, as
enlarged/curved low-level hodographs will easily support intense
low-level rotation. A focused corridor along and just south of the
front will have the best potential for multiple strong to intense
tornadoes (EF2-3+). Accordingly, greater tornado probabilities (15%)
and a categorical Moderate Risk have been included across parts of
northern/central IL into northwest IN with this update.
and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to a very favorable
environment for significant severe potential. Very large hail (2+
inches in diameter) will be possible with initial supercells.
Effective SRH and related low-level shear will markedly increase
around 11/00Z and later in tandem with the strengthening low-level
jet. The supercellular tornado threat is likewise expected to
quickly increase through the late afternoon/evening, as
enlarged/curved low-level hodographs will easily support intense
low-level rotation. A focused corridor along and just south of the
front will have the best potential for multiple strong to intense
tornadoes (EF2-3+). Accordingly, greater tornado probabilities (15%)
and a categorical Moderate Risk have been included across parts of
northern/central IL into northwest IN with this update.
VultureDirge89
Member
So I'm still not 100% clear on how the new outlook system works. Do the different sig severe levels contribute to the overall risk level for the outlook or are they separate?
bckhd2
Member
Grateful today that my brother is not in his dorm at Notre Dame and is instead home on spring break.
You can center the outlook on a state on this link:
bckhd2
Member
The overall risk level (ENH, MDT) indicates probability, the CIG levels indicate intensity, as I understand it.
bckhd2
Member
This is perfect - thank you so much!!
Kds86z
Member
Trey was mentioning too ..
SmokeEater
Member
Yup, 95% of the city is not even in the tornado risk though.
speedbump305
Member
Wow. “ Multiple strong/intense tornadoes. “ Been a while since we’ve seen that on an outlook discussion. Today really could be a doozy. Prayers to everyone today under the threat. Absolutely the right call to upgrade.
tornado examiner
Member
For tornadoes it’s an increase over the three for strong, to intense, to violent tornadoes being likely.
Kds86z
Member
bckhd2
Member
Being on the north side of the warm front boundary doing them a big favor there.
Definitely, some areas of Chicago have no tornado risk despite being 15-20 miles from the 15% CIG2.
SmokeEater
Member
Yea sir, not going to speak too soon, but may be a huge bullet dodged.
