-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
NWS MEG has increased hail size potential from Ping Pong ball to Tennis ball size in their updated graphic
I think we may see a cig1 tornado hatch if they upgrade later.
bckhd2
Member
BMX midnight discussion mentions hail up to 1-2 inches, nothing much about tornadoes. Interested to see what they say this afternoon, that type of bow echo could lead to some spin ups along the line.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Nice to see how this thread has remained mostly setup focused. Exactly what I like to see 
Regarding today, I wouldn't be surprised for a conditional weak tor or two in N MS with any robust storm that can ride that intense LLJ around 00z. They may be hailers most likely but the tor chance would absolutely be higher around then without the arriving LLJ.
Today will mostly be a day of sporadic, significant hail in AR/LA/MS and maybe even areas of AL.
TOMORROW
The 5% CIG1 around S TX surprised me, but i do think that area has a knack for producing significant tornadoes with very strong venting aj enough streamwise vorticity. Regardless, I would be iffy on this potential due to the temp/dew spreads. 78/60 on some soundings is doable but it's iffy enough to say the least. Maybe more a high based supercell threat with weak tornadoes at place.
Further up north, initiation will be later around 00z-03z, and the HRRR is struggling to resolve several storms in IL despite a robust warm front rider being depicted. Conditional significant tornado threat remains. My method is currently peaking around 90 for this which equals significant tornado potential on the scale. It won't be hard to get convection out of this setup and I don't expect it to be isolated. I do feel like a sporadic mix of linear segments and robust prefrontal cells will occur, and this will be our sigtor threat beginning towards 00z
Down south, further QLCS spinups appear plausible within the line in TX.
Regarding today, I wouldn't be surprised for a conditional weak tor or two in N MS with any robust storm that can ride that intense LLJ around 00z. They may be hailers most likely but the tor chance would absolutely be higher around then without the arriving LLJ.
Today will mostly be a day of sporadic, significant hail in AR/LA/MS and maybe even areas of AL.
TOMORROW
The 5% CIG1 around S TX surprised me, but i do think that area has a knack for producing significant tornadoes with very strong venting aj enough streamwise vorticity. Regardless, I would be iffy on this potential due to the temp/dew spreads. 78/60 on some soundings is doable but it's iffy enough to say the least. Maybe more a high based supercell threat with weak tornadoes at place.
Further up north, initiation will be later around 00z-03z, and the HRRR is struggling to resolve several storms in IL despite a robust warm front rider being depicted. Conditional significant tornado threat remains. My method is currently peaking around 90 for this which equals significant tornado potential on the scale. It won't be hard to get convection out of this setup and I don't expect it to be isolated. I do feel like a sporadic mix of linear segments and robust prefrontal cells will occur, and this will be our sigtor threat beginning towards 00z
Down south, further QLCS spinups appear plausible within the line in TX.
Jason Mills
Member
Major clearing across MS/AL
Jason Mills
Member
SPC kept Day 1 at slight.
Edit: They added a 5% tornado contour in N MS/AL
Edit: They added a 5% tornado contour in N MS/AL
Thanksgivingbrown
Member
Slight was pulled more north and west as well
Tornado upgrade to 5% just now
- Moderator
- #110
I'm worried some in Alabama are going to be taken by surprise this evening.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
Those are some gnarly updraft helicity swaths
Beachwalker
Member
Mississippi loves to make tornadoes. Just sayin’! Will be watching.
Yeah especially around me
Agreed. Im actually surprised a cig1 wasn't introduced for parts of the western half of Alabama into some of Mississippi. Maybe they update it in a afternoon update
16z hrrr is dangerous.
Kds86z
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
WEDNESDAY
If the NAM solution is correct and remains steady with a strong surface low building plenty of shear, with adequate instability, there may very well be problems combined with the conditional potential of a more semi discrete mode at play. Watch this closely as low level shear gets very volatile towards 21z.
If the NAM solution is correct and remains steady with a strong surface low building plenty of shear, with adequate instability, there may very well be problems combined with the conditional potential of a more semi discrete mode at play. Watch this closely as low level shear gets very volatile towards 21z.
If we see anything remotely more robust than the 16z hrrr. You could be looking at a more robust and pronounced tornado threat into Mississippi and the western half of Alabama. Definitely getting robust surface heating here in central Alabama currently. We're a outflow boundary sets up could be more of a focal point for a localized strong tornado/higher risk!
Ozonelayer
Member
Very strong wording from Moore (New D2 out)
"Regardless, strong isentropic ascent over the frontal zone coupled
with ample low-level moistening and steepening mid-level lapse rates
will support a convective environment favorable for well-organized
convection along both the warm front and southwestward along the
cold front across northern MO and KS. Effective SRH on the order of
200-300 m2/s2 coupled with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along/just south
of the boundary will support the potential for tornadoes - including
strong tornadoes - with any discrete supercell that can become
established."
"Regardless, strong isentropic ascent over the frontal zone coupled
with ample low-level moistening and steepening mid-level lapse rates
will support a convective environment favorable for well-organized
convection along both the warm front and southwestward along the
cold front across northern MO and KS. Effective SRH on the order of
200-300 m2/s2 coupled with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along/just south
of the boundary will support the potential for tornadoes - including
strong tornadoes - with any discrete supercell that can become
established."
