Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

[genie]

I completely agree, unless that boundary pushes back north, which even then the environment won't recover in time.

Have to wait and see what the LLJ does later tonight to find out how loud things get along the TX/LA border area. The hail will be monstrous either way, which is something I'm watching with interest.

 

[US_Highway15]

Had that boundary not pushed back south, I feel like we would've gotten that PDS.

 

[US_Highway15]

Feel like the probs and wording feel weak for a MOD risk Tornado Watch right?

 

[speedbump305]

Feel like the probs and wording feel weak for a MOD risk Tornado Watch right?

70/60 probs is still quite high. Definitely would not let your guard down by any means.

 

[Tennie]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for the storm near El Paso, IL.

 

[Kds86z]

O

Feel like the probs and wording feel weak for a MOD risk Tornado Watch right?

Only takes one

 

[eep]

It seems like the storms are moving slowly, giving them more time.

Feel like the probs and wording feel weak for a MOD risk Tornado Watch right?

Couple intense tornadoes seems like a step up from the last few severe events this year, dunno about mod in general.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Regarding the northern threat, the lake boundry has mostly stalled and potentially started inching ever so slightly to the north. I have my doubts on the northeastern portion actually verifying to its fullest but the cell near Bloomington I feel has a really good chance of being a big player today. Its already getting a better shape aswell.

 

[speedbump305]

Bloomington cell has really increased in size.
SVR T-Storm warning in affect now.

 

[speedbump305]

Regarding the northern threat, the lake boundry has mostly stalled and potentially started inching ever so slightly to the north. I have my doubts on the northeastern portion actually verifying to its fullest but the cell near Bloomington I feel has a really good chance of being a big player today. Its already getting a better shape aswell.

Agreed. Areas to the south of the lake boundary will still have a pretty good shot at producing.

 

[speedbump305]

The Bloomington cell is starting to take on a pretty decent shape. 100% needs to continue to be monitored.

 

[rushdude]

Watching a met on the local FOX affiliate and they say the Cap(TM) has won out so far. But then everything comes in during the evening.
Guess I ain't getting any sleep tonight

 

[speedbump305]

Watching a met on the local FOX affiliate and they say the Cap(TM) has won out so far. But then everything comes in during the evening.
Guess I ain't getting any sleep tonight

Correct me if i’m wrong but wasn’t this event supposed to be an evening/into the night threat? I could be mistaken though.

 

[US_Highway15]

Trying to view the watches from the past Moderate Risk for comparison, but of course the SPC website is bugged. Go figure.

 

[Kds86z]

Correct me if i’m wrong but wasn’t this event supposed to be an evening/into the night threat? I could be mistaken though.

He’s saying Texas

 

[Kds86z]

Illinois storm needs to shift east soon..

 

[rushdude]

Correct me if i’m wrong but wasn’t this event supposed to be an evening/into the night threat? I could be mistaken though.

Yep, but there was always the chance of rogue storms or the cap breaking early

 

[speedbump305]

Yep, but there was always the chance of rogue storms or the cap breaking early

According to Ryan Hall, the cap has been reported to have broken. Take that with a grain of salt though.

 

[US_Highway15]

Got a nice hail core already with this Flanagan storm.

 

[Atomz]

The storm that just passed El Paso is starting to get that kidney-bean shape to it; Looks like it already has a pretty sizable hail core, too.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens as it crosses the frontal boundary. Could see some pretty big hailstones in NE IL today.