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Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I am unconvinced that tomorrow is a slam dunk event, nor will the potential be high for significant tornadic supercells. Tomorrow has plenty of issues.

Robust discrete storm development will be a short window, hampered by sinking air, dry air, and a subtle warm nose plus filling in surface inversion. That cold front eventually will push in and create stronger forcing leading to upscale growth.

The issue is WILL we see discrete storms before this period? That's not out of the question but my confidence is fairly low for anything notable tmrw.

If anything, tonight looks conditional but still a better opportunity for sigtors. Today could be the main event or tomorrow. Plenty of uncertainty and skepticism from me for tomorrow but I feel intrigued into tonight before my flight to Disneyland Paris!
Click to expand...
Well Trey did both days tomorrow looks less uncertain and models don’t even show supercell development. Today looks like the better but storms may be hp.
 
New day 1

VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONTINUED MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A WARM
FRONT HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH 60F DEW
POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS A LINE FROM THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO TO TULSA
AND NORTHEAST OK. DEW POINTS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASING, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION, WITH FILTERED HEATING AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 60S TO 70S ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CLOUD COVER. CU DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE DRYLINE IN FAR
WESTERN TX/EASTERN NM. STEADY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK, WITH BILLOW CLOUDS
DOWNSTREAM OF CAP ROCK FROM MOTLEY, CHILDRESS, AND COTTLE COUNTIES
INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL STABILITY, WHICH IS NOTED IN THE
18Z SOUNDING FROM AMA.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING BY
LATE AFTERNOON (4-6 PM CST AS MENTIONED BELOW). INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLUAR, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL. STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND RESULTING
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THE EVENING WILL ENLARGE
HODOGRAPHS, WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES, WITH POTENTIAL OF
A STRONG TORNADO (EF2+).
 



PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN 22-00Z, AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GRADUALLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS -- WHERE STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IMPINGING
ON SHELTERED/INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE (UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS). AS DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE
IN THIS CORRIDOR, ANTECEDENT INHIBITION AT THE BASE OF THE EML
SHOULD ERODE AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE 22-00Z TIME
FRAME. WHILE UNCERTAIN, ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITHIN ZONES OF SUBTLE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FARTHER
NORTHEAST IN THE TX PANHANDLE, WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
A BIT STRONGER.

STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY, WHICH COMBINED WITH
AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, WILL FAVOR DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS -- GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT. INITIAL
STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS, THOUGH A
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND EXPANDING LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK INTO THIS
EVENING. THE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LINGERING INHIBITION DOES
CAST UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERE RISK,
THOUGH CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 03/05/2026
 
Kds86z said:



PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN 22-00Z, AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GRADUALLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS -- WHERE STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IMPINGING
ON SHELTERED/INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE (UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS). AS DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE
IN THIS CORRIDOR, ANTECEDENT INHIBITION AT THE BASE OF THE EML
SHOULD ERODE AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE 22-00Z TIME
FRAME. WHILE UNCERTAIN, ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITHIN ZONES OF SUBTLE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FARTHER
NORTHEAST IN THE TX PANHANDLE, WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
A BIT STRONGER.

STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY, WHICH COMBINED WITH
AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, WILL FAVOR DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS -- GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT. INITIAL
STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS, THOUGH A
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND EXPANDING LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK INTO THIS
EVENING. THE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LINGERING INHIBITION DOES
CAST UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERE RISK,
THOUGH CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 03/05/2026
Click to expand...

Hopefully not too many accidents today. This is gonna be an absolute logjam of chasers and clowns alike.
 
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