TornadoFan
Member
SPC just upped today's tornado risk up to 10% for southwestern OK/parts of the eastern Texas panhandle.
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Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8
- Thread starter Sharpy
- Start date
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Central Ohio Wx
Member
For some reason the updated outlook isn't transcluding onto the main site. Weird.
Love the new outlooks that are being displayed as @Grand Poo Bah mentioned. Today could have a lot of chaser convergence for it being the first big risk of the year in the plains.
Ozonelayer
Member
SPC has now upgraded the TOR probs to 10% over SW OK and some portions of TX. Very small corrior.
Kds86z
Member
Heyy there ya are
Kds86z
Member
AMETER. THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
ALSO FOSTER ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A
SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW FOR A STRONG (EF2+) TORNADO EVEN IF A MORE
COMPLEX MODE IS EVOLVING. OVER TIME, CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO A SMALL BUT POTENTIALLY INTENSE CLUSTER AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH ASSOCIATED
THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE REMAINS LOW DUE TO
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING. FARTHER NORTH, ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO IOWA.
ALSO FOSTER ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A
SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW FOR A STRONG (EF2+) TORNADO EVEN IF A MORE
COMPLEX MODE IS EVOLVING. OVER TIME, CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO A SMALL BUT POTENTIALLY INTENSE CLUSTER AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH ASSOCIATED
THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE REMAINS LOW DUE TO
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING. FARTHER NORTH, ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO IOWA.
Kds86z
Member
Central Ohio Wx
Member
D1?
Kds86z
Member
Yup and not broyles
Kds86z
Member
Central Ohio Wx
Member
D2 10% was moved south:
Ozonelayer
Member
16z HRRR would almost certainly be the ceiling of the event if it were to take place. SW OK and NW TX+Panhandle get lambasted with discrete to semi discrete supercells, and the evolution past that shows 2-3 hours of both a cluster of supercells and some discrete ones to the north before eventually congealing into a blob of precipitation.
Most other runs (Such as the 12z, 13z, and 14z) show less storms, and more isolated storms. To be frank, I believe this to be the most likely outcome as opposed to the chaos of the 16z.
Yeah today really just comes down to storm mode. Big reason for today conditional threat is the CIN being so low which could make storms fire and become messy too quick. You’re gonna have a 2-3 hour period for anything. Classic early plains setup.
Kds86z
Member
So things have uptrend from Treys video..
Better moisture further north and storm motion more favorable .
Muwx
Member
D2 outlook is interesting... Reads to me like a moderate risk could be on the table for the southern risk area (OK/ks/MO/AR) if confidence increases in sustained/mature supercells.
Kds86z
Member
Oh but we’re gonna need those clouds to go..
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I am unconvinced that tomorrow is a slam dunk event, nor will the potential be high for significant tornadic supercells. Tomorrow has plenty of issues.
Robust discrete storm development will be a short window, hampered by sinking air, dry air, and a subtle warm nose plus filling in surface inversion. That cold front eventually will push in and create stronger forcing leading to upscale growth.
The issue is WILL we see discrete storms before this period? That's not out of the question but my confidence is fairly low for anything notable tmrw.
If anything, tonight looks conditional but still a better opportunity for sigtors. Today could be the main event or tomorrow. Plenty of uncertainty and skepticism from me for tomorrow but I feel intrigued into tonight before my flight to Disneyland Paris!
Robust discrete storm development will be a short window, hampered by sinking air, dry air, and a subtle warm nose plus filling in surface inversion. That cold front eventually will push in and create stronger forcing leading to upscale growth.
The issue is WILL we see discrete storms before this period? That's not out of the question but my confidence is fairly low for anything notable tmrw.
If anything, tonight looks conditional but still a better opportunity for sigtors. Today could be the main event or tomorrow. Plenty of uncertainty and skepticism from me for tomorrow but I feel intrigued into tonight before my flight to Disneyland Paris!
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
One more message is to trust the SPC here. This is all just a fairly conservative view from me and they should be your main source. This is just a personal take from me. Tomorrow's ceiling certainly is significant but the floor is low.