Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8

[Grand Poo Bah]

“A significant severe weather event appears likely across the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Friday afternoon and evening.”

That's some very strong language for sure. Outlook also mentions the potential for strong tornadoes and 3 inch diameter hail.

 

[Kds86z]

“A significant severe weather event appears likely across the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Friday afternoon and evening.”

That's some very strong language for sure. Outlook also mentions the potential for strong tornadoes and 3 inch diameter hail.

If it wasn’t broyles it would be same I guess

 

[Kds86z]

First tornado warning out of AR in very long time, record I believe .

 

[joshoctober16]

while it has not much cape the hodo is quite the match to the pilger event.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

while it has not much cape the hodo is quite the match to the pilger event.

Completely different thermodynamics at play however

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

06z HRRR drops a stinker for Friday. Even while storm mode doesn't appear to be great, i wouldn't be ruling out confluence bands of sorts ahead of the line however and it isn't modeling those atm. The mid level profiles admittedly are very wonky, and the HRRR does not put a exactly pristine environment on this. If confluence bands can develop and sustain through a surface inversion then the potneital for several tornadoes will exist.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Pretty conditional to fire anything notable. Friday looking very on the edge

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Euro has been pretty consistent with a beefy squall line in about 6-7 days for the southeast and Midwest lol

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Ryan Hall is extremely bullish on Friday if that means anything. He's predicting an outlook upgrade to moderate.

Gotta goose those view counts

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Tennie]

Pretty conditional to fire anything notable. Friday looking very on the edge

This is an environment with several favorable parameter spaces, but also several potential failure modes. As such, this renders tomorrow's threat highly conditional: If the failure modes dominate, then there likely won't be much activity; OTOH, if the failure modes can be somehow overcome in time, you could potentially see a fairly substantial severe weather outbreak (not to mention that this is a spectrum of ways things could play out--I personally wouldn't be surprised if things end up playing out somewhere in between).

In any case, the best advice that should be given to people in the threat area is "Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst".

 

[Kds86z]

 

[MichelleH]

Euro has been pretty consistent with a beefy squall line in about 6-7 days for the southeast and Midwest lol

There's going to be a strong cold front with it, dropping highs from the 70s-80s back down to 50s-60s. If we get enough moisture - which we should - have a feeling it's going to be more than that. Tuesday night/Wednesday have my attention.

Speaking of which guys - should we move the discussion of next week's threat back to the main severe thread or start another thread (not me), because I don't want the information from either threat getting lost in the weeds.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Just outside of the SLGT. As usual. Seems to be a pretty robust threat though, even if low-end.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Is there a chance the D2 goes MDT?

 

[Ozonelayer]

Is there a chance the D2 goes MDT?

There is a very small but notable chance, but only if the models actually start agreeing on an outcome. The environment is fairly potent for this time of year. If we can get rid of the sinking air aswell that would allow for more supercellular development.

As of now? I don't see it. Maybe tomorrow if there is more agreement on actual convection from the CAMs.

 

[rushdude]

we have 10% hatched tornado risk for Friday.View attachment 50987

Not what I was wanting to wake up to.
This part in particular has me worried:
"Further south into north-central Texas and the Texas Hill Country, a
severe threat is expected during the afternoon and evening.
Large-scale forcing will be more limited which will keep the storms
more widely spaced. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from
Dallas/Worth southward into the Texas Hill Country have MLCAPE
generally from 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0-6km shear around 35 knots.
700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This should
support supercells with potential for large to very large hail and
isolated severe wind gusts. The potential for tornadoes should be
greatest in north-central Texas, where low-level shear will be
stronger."

 

[Muwx]

Is there a chance the D2 goes MDT?

I think the chances we get a D2 MDT are very, very slim. I think its possible that we get it at some point tomorrow, but I dont see much chance that it happens today. A lot of CAMs arent really convecting, and while I am skeptical of that outcome, I would be a little surprised if SPC pulls the trigger without more support from high res models.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens. Looking pretty barren