lake.effect
Member
really not buying the SPC probs for today. seems cooked.
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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
Central Ohio Wx
Member
I wonder if they'll downgrade the MDT at the 1630z outlook.
kcyalater
Member
crazy heavy snow in bham right now. if you’d have told me we’d have more snow days than tornado warnings in jeffco in the last four years i’d have laughed.
DanLarsen34
Member
I think that’s especially the case across central NC. Junkvection has really mitigated the threat there.
I actually think that four year streak is a bit of a red herring. BMX has gone to great lengths to be extremely conservative on tornado warnings. That’s why you can see an entire line tornado warned by JAN and the moment it hits western Alabama, BMX won’t re-issue. It’s going to take an actual supercell traversing the warm sector or a legitimate embedded supercell in a line, rather than a 2 minute spin up, for BMX to issue a warning for Jeff Co.
warneagle
Member
Federal offices (including the museums) are closing at 2, even though the first line of storms will have already passed through DC by then…
Personal question (also plugging in a weather question so it technically stays on topic), what period of history do you specialize in?
Also, what’s the temp/dew there right now? Any cloud cover?
Hey, I'd take that free afternoon if I were you, storms or not!
Yeah, writing has been on the wall that this one is cooked. Very poor tornadic environment, if one even exists now.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
60# for wind was kept but the tor risk was moved down a level; I'd argue it could've been further dropped to a 5% (my Armchair Forecast has 5%, 60% and 5% probs). Way too messy for any significant tornado potential.
Kds86z
Member
Tanner
Member
As a weather hobbyist (still in education), it makes me glad that I can disregard events like these that are a pain in the rear to forecast and cover.
lake.effect
Member
the probablities in these tornado watches are a joke. 30-50% chance of strong tornadoes from NYC to Savannah? lol, come on. time to admit defeat SPC.
Kds86z
Member
I’m in a strong tornado watch but yeah . ..
jiharris0220
Member
The main concern was that the messy storm mode and faster progression would crash the instability for the entire OWS, ultimately leading to an underperformance for all SVR hazards which is exactly what happened.
What I honestly didn’t expect was the shear itself to underperform, models had widespread helicity values in the 400s, in reality, a minuscule area of values just barely over 300 already almost off the coast. The storms as a consequence are very anemic, not a whole lot of SVR warnings at all in the area of interest.
We’ve seen setups downtrend before in terms of tornadoes with hazards like hail or wind verifying, but I can’t quite remember when a setup crashed and burned in all three sectors before.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
I'm still learning about how supercells and weather dynamics work, but I think it's exceedingly obvious that the area I have circled:
is going to kill any tornado potential, at least in SC and NC (correct me if I'm wrong though). Very surprised they've been going with 70/50 watches because of this.
is going to kill any tornado potential, at least in SC and NC (correct me if I'm wrong though). Very surprised they've been going with 70/50 watches because of this.
- Thread starter
- #1,319
CheeselandSkies
Member
I wonder what caused that? Flow at all levels a bit too meridional, perhaps a result of the trough coming in a bit more positively tilted? Per the 12Z GFS it now doesn't really start to become negatively tilted until 21Z (5 PM EDT) by which time the warm sector is almost completely off the coast.
This had some of the hallmarks of a big tornado outbreak trough, but not all of them. There was a while there where I thought the only limitation was going to be the moisture, but there ended up being more to it than that.
That said, it should be noted that the event isn't over yet and the potential for widespread, perhaps significant damaging wind gusts and an isolated strong tornado or two shouldn't be completely ruled out until the warm sector does, in fact, push offshore this evening.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
This is probably a great example of how NAM soundings can very quickly cause an event to be overhyped. They're just like RRFS where they almost always show the ceiling of the event rather than the most likely outcome. I noticed the RAP soundings were much less bullish across the board, but those aren't as alarming so they don't get shared, even though they're usually way more accurate. I've been burnt by the NAM so much at this point I think I won't give any weight to soundings from it anymore, and I won't be posting them anymore either. It's good for a lot, but certainly not that.