Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

[MMWX]

The NWS seems to have made it standard protocol to severe t'storm warn the entire QLCS. We've seen this happen more often than not in the past couple of events, spanning multiple WFOs.

I am not a fan.

 

[andyhb]

00z HRRR was a complete dud for tomorrow. Lots of junk convection limiting moisture return.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Bama Ravens]

I’m sort of surprised that the watch for central TN and north AL doesn’t extend further south. I guess the next watch will cover those areas.

 

[Tennie]

00z HRRR was a complete dud for tomorrow. Lots of junk convection limiting moisture return.

We'll need to see what subsequent runs do and look at what trends appear with them. On one hand, a decrease in the ceiling could be a good thing overall. On the other hand, it could just be an aberration compared to other runs, in which case the risk area should still keep an eye on the weather.

 

[KevinH]

SPC says another Tornado Watch forthcoming for southern parts of MS/AL.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 254

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

I guess this means we're next? lol Watch and see where the next few MDs talk about lol

Keep in mind the highest TOR probs were over N MS, W TN, and W KY. Which coincides with the TOR Probs of WW55:


They haven't issued any MDs for the OTHER 10% TOR risk in SE AL........ YET. Clancy and I should be next... Oh! And the gentleman who said he lives in Troy

 

[Clancy]

I guess this means we're next? lol Watch and see where the next few MDs talk about lol

Keep in mind the highest TOR probs were over N MS, W TN, and W KY. Which coincides with the TOR Probs of WW55:
View attachment 51984 View attachment 51985

They haven't issued any MDs for the OTHER 10% TOR risk in SE AL........ YET. Clancy and I should be next... Oh! And the gentleman who said he lives in Troy
View attachment 51987

Yeah, any watches further east will likely be issued at least several hours from now.

 

[KevinH]

I’m sort of surprised that the watch for central TN and north AL doesn’t extend further south. I guess the next watch will cover those areas.

Keep in mind the TOR probs/ingredients for South AL is not the same as central TN. There is a reason they didn't include it Compare WW 59 with the WW that will end up covering S Al and see if the probs are the same lol

I expect a MD for South AL within the next couple?? hours.

 

[KevinH]

Yeah, any watches further east will likely be issued at least several hours from now.

Show me the MD!!!!!!! lol

 

[akt1985]

It looks like the QLCS might be slowing down

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Hmmmmm...

 

[The Nino]

That tail end storm in n ms just keeps on looking like it’s trying to get going

 

[Snipeslayer]

The NWS seems to have made it standard protocol to severe t'storm warn the entire QLCS. We've seen this happen more often than not in the past couple of events, spanning multiple WFOs.

I am not a fan.

I wonder if it is just baseline reporting to draw attention to it for the general public who may not be directly in tune with the specifics of the weather?

 

[MQATLSNOW]

It looks like the QLCS might be slowing down

That is not good right? We need it to speed up right?

 

[akt1985]

The QLCS has slowed down to 45 MPH. I’m almost tempted to take a nap before the line gets here.

 

[Clancy]

Concerned we could see a substantial uptick in tornadic activity over the next few hours. SRH has increased markedly over the past hour or so, with a large swath of 400+ m2/s2 across parts of MS/AL/TN.

 

[Clancy]

Really tightening up near Marietta, Mississippi. Might be getting ready.

Edit: it literally just went TOR.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
924 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southern Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...
East central Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...

* Until 1000 PM CDT.

* At 924 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Burton, or 9 miles west of Tishomingo State Park,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Tishomingo State Park, Tishomingo, Burton, Paden, Oldham, Mingo,
Thrasher, Dennis, Petertown, Neil, Carter Branch, and Bloody
Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 8812 3454 8815 3451 8839 3458 8846
3479 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 244DEG 35KT 3456 8834

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN

$$

MJ

 

[speedbump305]

Concerned we could see a substantial uptick in tornadic activity over the next few hours. SRH has increased markedly over the past hour or so, with a large swath of 400+ m2/s2 across parts of MS/AL/TN.
View attachment 51996

Might eat my words later but…
looks like Dixie Alley might be starting to Dixie once again.

 

[Tennie]

Really tightening up near Marietta, Mississippi. Might be getting ready.
View attachment 51997

Tornado Warning on it now.

 

[speedbump305]

That couplet is actually quite tight and compact. We could definitely see a tornado on the ground here shortly.