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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

I'm not calling bu$t, still a long way to go with this system, especially in the overnight hours/tomorrow on the east coast. Just giving my analysis on the underperformance in the Memphis metro as this system clears that area.

I do think it is worth mentioning that overconvection is a thing, and it limits the ceiling some events have. 3/15/25 was looking like 4/27/11 all over again. Some of those model runs were portraying literal doomsday scenarios. While 3/15/25 certainly was a bad day, the worst-case scenario was avoided due to overconvection in the warm sector ahead of the front.

Tonight certainly doesn't have the ceiling 3/15/25 had, but the same limiting factor of overconvection played out. In the future, when models are printing out more supercells than you can count, I would say that actually adds another fly in the ointment.

If these prefrontal cells can stay more discrete as they move into East MS/AL, then a decent TOR threat remains overnight.
 
MMWX said:
I'm not calling bu$t, still a long way to go with this system, especially in the overnight hours/tomorrow on the east coast. Just giving my analysis on the underperformance in the Memphis metro as this system clears that area.

I do think it is worth mentioning that overconvection is a thing, and it limits the ceiling some events have. 3/15/25 was looking like 4/27/11 all over again. Some of those model runs were portraying literal doomsday scenarios. While 3/15/25 certainly was a bad day, the worst-case scenario was avoided due to overconvection in the warm sector ahead of the front.

Tonight certainly doesn't have the ceiling 3/15/25 had, but the same limiting factor of overconvection played out. In the future, when models are printing out more supercells than you can count, I would say that actually adds another fly in the ointment.

If these prefrontal cells can stay more discrete as they move into East MS/AL, then a decent TOR threat remains pretty strong overnight.
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Very good observation. What are your thoughts about ATL severe chance? Will it be as bad as MISS outbreak right now?
 
MMWX said:
I'm not calling bu$t, still a long way to go with this system, especially in the overnight hours/tomorrow on the east coast. Just giving my analysis on the underperformance in the Memphis metro as this system clears that area.

I do think it is worth mentioning that overconvection is a thing, and it limits the ceiling some events have. 3/15/25 was looking like 4/27/11 all over again. Some of those model runs were portraying literal doomsday scenarios. While 3/15/25 certainly was a bad day, the worst-case scenario was avoided due to overconvection in the warm sector ahead of the front.

Tonight certainly doesn't have the ceiling 3/15/25 had, but the same limiting factor of overconvection played out. In the future, when models are printing out more supercells than you can count, I would say that actually adds another fly in the ointment.

If these prefrontal cells can stay more discrete as they move into East MS/AL, then a decent TOR threat remains overnight.
Click to expand...
HRRR nailed this pretty well actually. It showed the more broken line/discrete look we are seeing but also no significant rotation on those cells. I will say, I’m still not counting out that southern gulf area just yet.
 
Kolle said:
Tornado Watch until 3am for all of the HUN coverage area. Graphics to come.
Click to expand...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 59
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA
FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA
MIDDLE INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 820 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 0.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...BROKEN BANDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONGER CELLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS WILL POTENTIALLY POSE THE GREATEST SEVERE
RISK. A FEW TORNADOES, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG TORNADOES, AND SEVERE GUSTS 60-80 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
Click to expand...

1773624216646.png
 
ColdFront said:
HRRR nailed this pretty well actually. It showed the more broken line/discrete look we are seeing but also no significant rotation on those cells. I will say, I’m still not counting out that southern gulf area just yet.
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I can see this area firing, although maybe not a significant tornado threat. Overconvection seems to be a issue as well but a few tornadoes are possible in SE AL.


Instability seems to be slightly lacking and along with a clustered mode in NE MS, i think the degree of instability definitely limits the ceiling of tornado intensity. Weak tornadoes sporadically possible for sure next few hours.
 
MQATLSNOW said:
Very good observation. What are your thoughts about ATL severe chance? Will it be as bad as MISS outbreak right now?
Click to expand...
Upper Air Sounding

This is the observed 0Z sounding in Peachtree City. Certainly, a couple of weak spin-ups can occur, but the thermodynamics in the ATL metro don't support anything impressive forming. The shear is impressive, but the LCL is pretty high, and CAPE is very weak. As with the rest of this system, your main threat should be strong winds.
 
SPC says another Tornado Watch forthcoming for southern parts of MS/AL.
Mesoscale Discussion 0254
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...southeast Louisiana...southern Mississippi...and
southwestern into west-central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 160128Z - 160330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and tornado risk to increase this evening.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms continues near a cold
front sagging southward and east across central LA into southeast
Texas. Further east ahead of the front, attempts at development are
starting to occur across southern Louisiana as MLCIN has begin to
erode over the last hour. It is likely that ongoing convection will
move downstream, with additional development possible ahead of this
across southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. MLCAPE around
1000-2000 J/kg will overlap with deep layer shear around 40 kts to
support supercells ahead of the main line and more clustered/mixed
mode/line embedded supercells closer to the cold front. Primary
risks would be for damaging winds and tornadoes, though some
instances of hail could occur with discrete supercells. A watch will
be needed soon to cover this threat.

..Thornton/Smith.. 03/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30379183 32369059 33158885 32848772 32578730 31708735
30518792 29579021 29439148 29909206 30379183

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Click to expand...

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 254

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
Seems like the red flag of CAMs showing weak helicity streaks has rung true yet again.

Higher than forecasted dews and instability along with PBL mixing has allowed for discrete development but no supercells managed to take advantage due to poor streamwiseness and overall just “meh” SRH.

Im still sticking with my forecast for tomorrow despite the CAMs trending more progressive and messy with the storm mode, although a high ceiling is likely not in the cards at this point.
 
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