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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

Kds86z said:
Actually for me in Southern Pennsylvania
the last mdt risk for me for tornadoes was 2008. It only failed because of some dry air in atmosphere. The whole week had tornadoes or tornado outbreak every day. No B%**. My area was the first B$&@. Good thing I guess.

Or was it 2003, hmmm I just remember a full week of 100-200 tornadoes all over leading up to the Sunday I had the risk.
Click to expand...
May 2003?
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
May 4 2003. Ef4 went bout 5 miles from
My house. , did not have go far chase that night lol
Click to expand...
My sister was 48 min from Rochelle eF4, but that’s it for my family with close encounters except I went through a high end eF1 hitting a church property I was at when a kid in vbs.

And my best friend lived through the Claremore,OK 2024 killer EF3. 2 miles from his house. He was also friends with a guy who survived the OK Barnsdall EF4 that same month.

Ok off topic, apologies lol.
 
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Day 1

..EASTERN GULF COAST STATES

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SEPARATE AREA OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST, WHICH MAY INCLUDE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT GEORGIA
BY LATE TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG. COINCIDENT WITH ENLARGING, CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 40-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW OVERSPREADING
THE REGION, AND IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
THERE APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS
WHICH COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES.

..KERR/THORNTON.. 03/15/2026
 
in 10% hatched for tornadoes, something not accustomed to.


..CAROLINAS INTO MD/PA AND VICINITY

AREAS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY BUT SHOULD
RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH, ALLOWING AREAS OF HEATING AND GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS,
LOW-LEVEL WIND WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES APPEAR MOST LIKELY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM SC INTO NC AND SOUTHERN VA. MODELS VARY WITH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY, BUT STRONG TORNADOES DO APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH EFFECTIVE
SRH OF AT LEAST 300-400 M2/S2. FAST STORM MOTIONS OVER 50 KT SUGGEST
A LONG TRACKED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
 
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