The answer, broadly-speaking, is multiple things. But the biggest thing usually has to do with timing, and the wedge. Wedge is self-explanatory, timing has to do with systems very frequently getting to us well after dark, and there's also probably some geography at play. But we do have our moments, significant outbreaks can and do happen in the state, but they are far less frequent and severe than in, say, Alabama.
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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
tornado examiner
Member
I’ve never seen a 45% risk issued for any day 3 outlook before. Is this a first?
Is that new.
Is that new.
WhirlingWx
Member
Here's the updated chunk of the SPC outlook:
AMENDED TO EXPAND D4/MONDAY THREAT AREAS
...DISCUSSION...
...Updated discussion for D4...
The majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance agree on a
deep midlevel trough and associated cold front that will move
eastward across the Appalachians and to the Atlantic coast by
Tuesday morning. Severe storms could be ongoing at the beginning of
the period along the northeast Gulf coast into GA. The warm sector,
characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will expand
northward (generally east of the Appalachians) through the day as
far north as PA. Though clouds could limit downstream surface
heating somewhat, very strong wind profiles and focused forcing for
ascent will favor a continuation of convection along the front, as
well as pre-frontal convection, with the potential to produce
relatively widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes.
AMENDED TO EXPAND D4/MONDAY THREAT AREAS
...DISCUSSION...
...Updated discussion for D4...
The majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance agree on a
deep midlevel trough and associated cold front that will move
eastward across the Appalachians and to the Atlantic coast by
Tuesday morning. Severe storms could be ongoing at the beginning of
the period along the northeast Gulf coast into GA. The warm sector,
characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will expand
northward (generally east of the Appalachians) through the day as
far north as PA. Though clouds could limit downstream surface
heating somewhat, very strong wind profiles and focused forcing for
ascent will favor a continuation of convection along the front, as
well as pre-frontal convection, with the potential to produce
relatively widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes.
The 18z nam is a big uptick in parameters in Alabama and Georgia
Bulkshear
Member
How does the threat look for TN? We tend to get lost up here in Dixie events
18z NAM is again an outbreak across the SE Sunday night and the Mid Atlantic on Monday. High end shear profiles overlapping at times moderate instability. Not only that, but the convective signal looks much more like a broken line than a solid squall.
Kds86z
Member
Me
also
Ozonelayer
Member
18z NAM is basically a tornado outbreak mixed with a major wind event stretching from the southeast all the way through the piedmont/mid-atlantic reigon stretching all the way into central Pennsylvania.
My gosh. This is Birmingham late Sunday night in early Monday morning.
No, it's happened several times. First time under this new probabilistic regime, however.
Ozonelayer
Member
Taken on the NC/SC border. The windshear in the low levels is utterly remarkable. Not to mention CAPE is continuing to uptrend.
That is not a look on mid level vertical velocity that would indicate only a line. That is very cellular.
Ozonelayer
Member
Broken line 3/14 style? (Not the madnitude but the storm mode)
The overall threat for long track strong tornadoes are increasing across the whole area honestly.
Rarely do you see such a impressive low level curvature like that. That's jaw dropping.
Kds86z
Member
Potentially closing out the month with most widespread of all…
