Heck if that primer actually boosts moisture in the southeast maybe Midwest plains prior to a monster long wave trough the gfs shows we are gunna be in some deep doody.
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
KakashiHatake2000
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Oh okay gotcha interesting
Scary thing is. The euro ensembles and gfs ensembles are actaully supportive of the current operational gfs euro runs for an ejecting low around the time frame before thanksgiving.
slenker
Member
Sure, but I'd say that the likelihood of that actually coming to fruition as of now is very low. There's still plenty of model disagreement after that primer wave swings through. It's been a trend this year for troughs 8+ days out to degenerate into slop, and I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if that happens in this case. All I'm saying at the moment is that there is agreement on some sort of "primer" wave now - I don't want to hype anything up too much at all, not yet.
Haha, understand. I agree not time to hype. Although there is some ensemble support. We are still in voodoo land •_•
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tennessee storm chaser
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We are just not in a good pattern for
Severe weather in the central plains and in the south
Kds86z
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Kds86z
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Kds86z
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Kds86z
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WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yeah, i was struggling to confirm that was AI. AI would be a lot more telltale just visually but that seemed generally pretty accurate. Quite a surprise day in the east coast today. Regardless of the 5%, i can't say I expected too much out of it
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I'll add my little tidbit in on that trough showing up in the long range that people have mentioned. While I know this second season hasn't been particularly active nor impressive, you must maintain level headed with signals like this and not get too ahead of yourself. If we are to analyse this and take it verbatim, what i would be thinking is:
Impressive flow aloft surges into portions of Louisiana with very obvious diffluence in W MS with strong ascent. Ascent is stronger up north where instability is lacking but shear is very impressive with 350-400 0-1km SRH here. Ascent does exist to a lesser degree down south in SE LA where I'd say this scenario would reasonably surge storms given no evident warm nose.
It's not really that impressive of a scenario when you really take a look at it, the shear is eye catching but rather meridional flow additionally over the warm sector in fact would probably make this 12z run reliant on confluence bands.
If you're a visual learner, here's what I'm trying to explain:
Credit to PolarWx for this very useful tool that shows you areas of ascent with the trough.
The more bold the red gets, consider that like stronger forcing and that area in W MS is extremely evident.
The 18z is pretty interesting to say the least. Centers the main svr threat over SE TX but definitely not as much of a potent shear environment. Trough would probably favor more of a semi clustered on this run, rather than meridional but still not exactly a great look for anything we maintained.
And diffluence aloft again is north of the best general environment. So should we throw this out in the bin? Not entirely. StormNet has had a broad signal for it and deterministics are also keying in on this timeframe. You have to watch how this southern jet evolves and if this signal even stays. There's a chance it will go, but it's worth a watch. The jet isn't particularly well timed on these runs but that can improve a lot over the span of a week. Don't get your heads in a swivel yet, just keep a little peek on it for now.
Impressive flow aloft surges into portions of Louisiana with very obvious diffluence in W MS with strong ascent. Ascent is stronger up north where instability is lacking but shear is very impressive with 350-400 0-1km SRH here. Ascent does exist to a lesser degree down south in SE LA where I'd say this scenario would reasonably surge storms given no evident warm nose.
It's not really that impressive of a scenario when you really take a look at it, the shear is eye catching but rather meridional flow additionally over the warm sector in fact would probably make this 12z run reliant on confluence bands.
If you're a visual learner, here's what I'm trying to explain:
Credit to PolarWx for this very useful tool that shows you areas of ascent with the trough.
The more bold the red gets, consider that like stronger forcing and that area in W MS is extremely evident.
The 18z is pretty interesting to say the least. Centers the main svr threat over SE TX but definitely not as much of a potent shear environment. Trough would probably favor more of a semi clustered on this run, rather than meridional but still not exactly a great look for anything we maintained.
And diffluence aloft again is north of the best general environment. So should we throw this out in the bin? Not entirely. StormNet has had a broad signal for it and deterministics are also keying in on this timeframe. You have to watch how this southern jet evolves and if this signal even stays. There's a chance it will go, but it's worth a watch. The jet isn't particularly well timed on these runs but that can improve a lot over the span of a week. Don't get your heads in a swivel yet, just keep a little peek on it for now.
SmokeEater
Member
Insane day around here, and I missed every bit of it at work, lol. I hate early day events, lol.
Nice post!
The only two forecast models that have been showing a Thanksgiving week severe threat are the Euro and GFS. That being said, the consistency between the two isn't there yet. From a pattern perspective, yes, I do see the potential, but until we get more consistency, I'm going with a more heavy rain solution.