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Severe Weather 2026

I would be cautious still of how much or big of the severe weather threat. With southern jet playing a key role going forward, these systems might be too fast to really tap into moisture return plus I get the feeling we might end up with more heavy rainfall/flash flood events than robust outbreaks more inland.
 
JPWX said:
I would be cautious still of how much or big of the severe weather threat. With southern jet playing a key role going forward, these systems might be too fast to really tap into moisture return plus I get the feeling we might end up with more heavy rainfall/flash flood events than robust outbreaks more inland.
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Yup. Already devolved into split-flow slop that wraps up into a cut-off bowling ball on the current GFS run. Any coherent trough ejection keeps getting pushed further out in time and then downtrending as it gets closer. Been doing this for like six weeks now. At one point the system that recently caused the several-day stretch of severe weather over the Southwest looked like it might eject east and do the same over the Plains/Midwest. Not so much.
 
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