Severe Weather 2026

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Before the posts start rolling in, global models are stil not fixed on the trough they've been showing in the Central Plains for a good week or two. Specifically, the 14th. Potential svr threat but ensembles are not very strong on this still. What I will say is though, it is a very good looking synoptic setup for the time of year if trends hold.

 

[akt1985]

Back to the radar issues at Mobile, was there an issue with the Tornado Warning issued for southern Baldwin County on Sunday afternoon?

 

[eep]

Before the posts start rolling in, global models are still not fixed on the trough they've been showing in the Central Plains for a good week or two. Specifically, the 14th. Potential svr threat but ensembles are not very strong on this still. What I will say is though, it is a very good looking synoptic setup for the time of year if trends hold.

Funny how right after someone posted there might not be a pattern change, this shows up. Have to assume there'll be various shots at severe weather as various Pacific TCs have their remnants flung eastward.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Before the posts start rolling in, global models are stil not fixed on the trough they've been showing in the Central Plains for a good week or two. Specifically, the 14th. Potential svr threat but ensembles are not very strong on this still. What I will say is though, it is a very good looking synoptic setup for the time of year if trends hold.

A couple consecutive GFS runs a day or two ago had a nice, coherent, broad-wavelength, negatively tilted trough ejection for around the 12th-13th, but it then backed off to a less amplified/more piecemeal scenario and the ensemble didn't really support it.

Today's 12Z run looked like a big cut-off "bowling ball," with the LLJ displaced pretty far east of the fairly narrow/marginal instability axis.

 

[jackhutwx]

Before the posts start rolling in, global models are stil not fixed on the trough they've been showing in the Central Plains for a good week or two. Specifically, the 14th. Potential svr threat but ensembles are not very strong on this still. What I will say is though, it is a very good looking synoptic setup for the time of year if trends hold.

one things for sure, its looks like its gonna pull a lot of moisture up into the midwest and the ohio valley. gotta watch this carefully.