jackhutwx
Member
will illinois ever catch a break?? I'm honestly so done with severe weather, lets just move on to winter and snow. I've been excited about winter for a while now lol
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Quick writeup regarding svr setups this week
IMO, I'm a bit skeptical of a 5% tmrw but there's some reasons.
79/71 according to models in N Indiana with robust low level stretching, subtle dry air aloft and cool enough mid levels to allow for vertical instability. Low level shear will not be particularly strong tomorrow. Supercells fire and may maintain discrete nature for around a hour or two. Isolated tornado or two possible. As storms congeal, profiles will turn very dry, with a damaging wind risk increasing, tornado chances low but not ruled out by this point.
Thursday
Expecting potential for a messier regime of supercells utilising low level stretching + stronger LL shear in NE PA/SE NY. Profiles feature dry air aloft and mid level cooling along with a area of increased 850mb response. Isolated tornado threat a decent likelihood here.
Mesoscale days probable after this mini-sequence. Ensemble guidance isn't strong.
SPC is noting a feature in the D7-8 period however and has had some stronger wording on it but confidence is still too low for any potential outlook.
IMO, I'm a bit skeptical of a 5% tmrw but there's some reasons.
79/71 according to models in N Indiana with robust low level stretching, subtle dry air aloft and cool enough mid levels to allow for vertical instability. Low level shear will not be particularly strong tomorrow. Supercells fire and may maintain discrete nature for around a hour or two. Isolated tornado or two possible. As storms congeal, profiles will turn very dry, with a damaging wind risk increasing, tornado chances low but not ruled out by this point.
Thursday
Expecting potential for a messier regime of supercells utilising low level stretching + stronger LL shear in NE PA/SE NY. Profiles feature dry air aloft and mid level cooling along with a area of increased 850mb response. Isolated tornado threat a decent likelihood here.
Mesoscale days probable after this mini-sequence. Ensemble guidance isn't strong.
SPC is noting a feature in the D7-8 period however and has had some stronger wording on it but confidence is still too low for any potential outlook.