• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2026

New Brunswick and Quebec look downright scary tomorrow. If (and this is a big if) any lone supercells form in that environment I would not even rule out a violent tornado. I saw soundings last night where the analog supercells in Quebec were the Andover tornado of 1991 and ones in New Brunswick which were the Topeka, Kansas 1966 event. Yikes!
 
Xyls said:
Regarding the New England threat I saw a model run last night of the NAM which had the outbreak showing as a bunch of discrete or semi-discrete supercells in Quebec and New Brunswick with the hodographs having PDS tornado as most likely risk in Quebec and tornadoes as most likely risk in NB. I think there is still a chance for some nasty tornadoes up in Eastern Canada tomorrow. I am very puzzled by Environment Canada's seeming underplaying of the threat on the significant weather outlook... compared to the SPC?
Click to expand...
It's the NAM. It always overplays tornado threats. Never Accurate Model as many call it. the tornado threat isn't that high otherwise I'm absolutely sure the SPC would've been introducing a 10 or higher hatched by now. Environment Canada do a poor job at messaging severe weather threats admittedly.
 
Also, the latest trends on the tree eating tornadoes in NW Quebec is that low level shear downtrended some and there a lot of ifs with it. Conditional strong tornado threat now but low level hodographs not as inflated due to downtrends of the mid level jet in particular.

Also tomorrow will feature more of a prominent large hail threat than tornadoes. While low level shear occasionally becomes significant, I'm not expecting strong/violent tornadoes at all tomorrow. But it is still a impressive parameter space given the region in question. A couple tornadoes, large hail and isolated damaging winds when storms eventually cluster are possible.
 
This is a sounding for tomorrow 7pm EDT taken roughly over my house, +/- a mile or two. I think that's the most potent environment we've had here in the last ... few years for sure?

It's still just the NAM, and that sounding alone doesn't make it a slam dunk (by this region's standards), but I'm also surprised by the lack of discussion from Environment Canada / Weather Network / others about the potential here. Maybe they don't buy it.

In any case this setup is probably my best shot at actually chasing something for once as opposed to following online from afar!
 

Attachments

  • soundings-[45.38,-72.1]-nam4km-stp-ca_e-2026071312-35.png
    soundings-[45.38,-72.1]-nam4km-stp-ca_e-2026071312-35.png
    258.4 KB · Views: 16
SamB01 said:
This is a sounding for tomorrow 7pm EDT taken roughly over my house, +/- a mile or two. I think that's the most potent environment we've had here in the last ... few years for sure?

It's still just the NAM, and that sounding alone doesn't make it a slam dunk (by this region's standards), but I'm also surprised by the lack of discussion from Environment Canada / Weather Network / others about the potential here. Maybe they don't buy it.

In any case this setup is probably my best shot at actually chasing something for once as opposed to following online from afar!
Click to expand...
is this usa or canada? what state is this?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top