Cyclic boundary bonkers stuff in Canada with that supercell
Tomorrow has uptrended into a potentially decent setup for a few tornadoes given large amounts of low level instability along with enhanced low level shear in W KY/S IL. A sporadic regime of supercells riding 30-40 kt flow will accompany this feature. Some areas may approach up to 200+ 3CAPE! If this vorticity can be stretched efficiently tomorrow, we could see several tornadoes. I think a 5% may be needed in later outlooks. SPC agrees with my thinking regarding placement but that could certainly extend a bit north/south.
Regarding our Day 5 slight, it looks interesting. A highly sheared environment with the potential for a couple of tornadoes. Storm mode may quickly congeal given the orientation of the supercells. As such, how high tornado potential gets regarding significant tornadoes given 300+ 0-1km at times will be dependent on storm mode and also the amount of instability. This appears to be the threat I mentioned for Monday, but models have seemingly switched timing a bunch. This is not a setup you regularly see often up here
