Severe Weather 2026

[CheeselandSkies]

IL/IN/IA/MO just crushing everybody else. Surprisingly the latter two states managing to do it without being affected by any really high-end outbreaks like 4/26/24 or 3/14/25.

WI's count of 39 is considerably above the 1981-2010 30-year normal of 23, but still well below our annual record of 62 set in 2005, when our daily record-setting outbreak of 27 tornadoes occurred on August 18, of all days (when the Stoughton F3 almost hit me).

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Recently gone through and edited/uploaded some of my GoPro footage from my chases in April that I overlooked immediately after the fact.

 

[Kds86z]

July 4th was the biggest severe thunderstorm warning day of the year. Happy 4th. 50 warnings concurrently happened at once.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Super Typhoon Bavi continues a impressive outer band tornado outbreak right now near Guam. Very impressive signatures for this area

 

[eep]

12z HRRR looks a bit interesting for tomorrow. If it persists on other models I wouldn't be surprised to see a possible upgrade in later outlooks.

 

[Kds86z]

Flood watch here today. The heat wave is gone and now we’re in a stormy pattern. Heavy rainfall last few days and storms and continues this week. I’ll take 82-85 cloudy and rain and storms over 99 sunny humid.

 

[Kds86z]

Minnesota had some tornadoes last evening. The pictured one here is not the PDS one which unfortunately caused 2 injuries.



* AT 801 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER ROCHERT, OR NEAR DETROIT LAKES, MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Seems to me like a potential MCV moves thru IA/IL on Friday. Weak disturbance notable on many runs in particular and sounding reveal the classic landmarks of MCVs. Watch out for surprises with this one.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I'd like you to search up the coordinates on this sounding as well, and i think you would be a bit surprised. Very impressive kinematics for this area given the adequate instability

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

so, quick writeup on the tornado potential the next few days.

Today still appears to be focused within that boundary in NE SD but I do expect rapid upscale. Sloshy windbag and brief tornadoes a possibility. Wouldn't rule out one in NE Montana conditionally either.

TOMORROW
Mini supercells in Central MN could drop a isolated tornado. No other area of interest.


THURSDAY
MCV potential in N IL, albeit high uncertainty on placement and etc, models have consistently picked up on this disturbance. I expect a tornado threat somewhere in this vicinity. Conditional window for initiation in N SD, but globals aren't optimistic. If storm development uptrends, a isolated all hazards threat will exist with any supercell.

FRIDAY
W Alberta could see a isolated supercell or two with low end tornado potential. Moisture quality is the question and how much instability. A very sneaky threat here and the only one at that

SATURDAY
Globals are very confident in a potentially robust window for severe weather, including all hazards in Central Alberta here. 65+ effective shear may lead to long lived supercells, capable of a tornado threat and large hail. Watching this day closely given the area it's in.

 

[jackhutwx]

so, quick writeup on the tornado potential the next few days.

Today still appears to be focused within that boundary in NE SD but I do expect rapid upscale. Sloshy windbag and brief tornadoes a possibility. Wouldn't rule out one in NE Montana conditionally either.

TOMORROW
Mini supercells in Central MN could drop a isolated tornado. No other area of interest.


THURSDAY
MCV potential in N IL, albeit high uncertainty on placement and etc, models have consistently picked up on this disturbance. I expect a tornado threat somewhere in this vicinity. Conditional window for initiation in N SD, but globals aren't optimistic. If storm development uptrends, a isolated all hazards threat will exist with any supercell.

FRIDAY
W Alberta could see a isolated supercell or two with low end tornado potential. Moisture quality is the question and how much instability. A very sneaky threat here and the only one at that

SATURDAY
Globals are very confident in a potentially robust window for severe weather, including all hazards in Central Alberta here. 65+ effective shear may lead to long lived supercells, capable of a tornado threat and large hail. Watching this day closely given the area it's in.

great analysis lep, totally agree with everything said here.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

A localised, conditional window for a strong tornado may exist in NW Quebec on Monday. Given nearly 380+ 0-1km SRH and enough CAPE aloft a leftover inversion, should shear overcome the inversion and SE moving storm mode cooperate, a isolated strong tornado may be possible.

 

[akt1985]

Although just a Marginal Risk for now, the northwest flow might mean an MCS for Friday over the Tennessee Valley if ingredients better come together on Friday.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Tomorrow seems like the better sneaky MCV tornado risk tbh, i can see a brief tor or two in E KS stretching to.... Take a guess... Southern Illinois. Sporadic supercell regime it seems

On the other hand, seems like central Saskatchewan is in for a potentially interesting severe weather outbreak on Saturday. Impressive parameter space.