Good uncertainty for chasers. If anything touches down it'll be photogenic
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
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WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
TODAY
Cold, undercut storms in NW South Dakota seem probable, with a very nonzero tornado risk.
TOMORROW.
A cluster of supercells in E ND may hold a marginal all hazards threat
Thursday
Cluster of storms in a high instability environment capable of all hazards in SD
Friday
SE moving Nebraska/Iowa setup with fairly high instability, could be a interesting one.
Cold, undercut storms in NW South Dakota seem probable, with a very nonzero tornado risk.
TOMORROW.
A cluster of supercells in E ND may hold a marginal all hazards threat
Thursday
Cluster of storms in a high instability environment capable of all hazards in SD
Friday
SE moving Nebraska/Iowa setup with fairly high instability, could be a interesting one.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Eastern ND may have to watch out tmrw ahead of a strong LLJ promoting 200+ SRH ahead of semi discrete - messy mode of supercells. Iffy lapse rates makes me question storm sustainability though, will have to watch how cloud cover evolves tomorrow. Maybe a strong tornado is possible.
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Really hope that's the only MCS here for the year. Our power was off for over 10 freaking hours.
tennessee storm chaser
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Something tells me this just now getting started . Deeper into summer classic MCS type storms get rolling here in the south . Once we get into a nw flow pattern
Last edited:
Kds86z
Member
Grand Poo Bah
Member
Small 5% Cig 1 tonight. Wouldn't be surprised if we get a decent MCS out of it.
Tomorrow currently sitting at only a 2% unhatched, but looks way more interesting on RAP soundings and sim ref (especially on the NAM NST of all places). It's another situation where the most potent ingredients don't time right with the main convection, but there's enough widespread isolated activity you'd think the conditions are going to end up being right somewhere.
These systems are pretty pitiful and all these high-pressure ridges in key locations are still shredding everything, but the theorized effects of the Kara Sea Ridge I talked about last week could actually be coming to fruition for mid-June. In a similar fashion to how mergers can boost supercells, several pockets of low pressure may try to come together and form a respectable trough. This definitely appears to be a situation where rosby waves are disrupting the polar vortex and causing it to shake off pockets of cold air down South. While it's a big IF, and a lot of factors have to come together perfectly for a strong system to form, this is definitely some established science we're talking about here, and it seems like a safe bet we'll get at least one decent sized outbreak out of it.
Tomorrow currently sitting at only a 2% unhatched, but looks way more interesting on RAP soundings and sim ref (especially on the NAM NST of all places). It's another situation where the most potent ingredients don't time right with the main convection, but there's enough widespread isolated activity you'd think the conditions are going to end up being right somewhere.
These systems are pretty pitiful and all these high-pressure ridges in key locations are still shredding everything, but the theorized effects of the Kara Sea Ridge I talked about last week could actually be coming to fruition for mid-June. In a similar fashion to how mergers can boost supercells, several pockets of low pressure may try to come together and form a respectable trough. This definitely appears to be a situation where rosby waves are disrupting the polar vortex and causing it to shake off pockets of cold air down South. While it's a big IF, and a lot of factors have to come together perfectly for a strong system to form, this is definitely some established science we're talking about here, and it seems like a safe bet we'll get at least one decent sized outbreak out of it.
Kds86z
Member
Latest for today :
, MOSTLY FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN SD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ND. THIS AREA IS ALSO THE MOST
LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AS A
RESULT, THERE APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVE INCREASE IN THE OVERALL
TORNADO RISK WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.
, MOSTLY FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN SD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ND. THIS AREA IS ALSO THE MOST
LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AS A
RESULT, THERE APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVE INCREASE IN THE OVERALL
TORNADO RISK WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
CheeselandSkies
Member
Bet that's a gorgeous supercell southeast of Murdo, SD right now. Wish I could chase these subtle Northern Plains setups but I still have PTSD from my 2016 "chasecation" which was penciled in weeks in advance for what turned out to be the week after Dodge City & Chapman; when I went out for a slight risk setup in the Dakotas since it was the only thing on the outlook all week and it turned out to be slop.
Beachwalker
Member
Could spit out a few Tors today. Storm near Falkton looking tasty…
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Genuinely the most dead I've ever seen this forum. Wonder what it's because of, inactive svr?
Tornado threat could increase with one or two strong soon in South Dakota with these supercells
Tornado threat could increase with one or two strong soon in South Dakota with these supercells