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Severe Weather 2026

TODAY

Cold, undercut storms in NW South Dakota seem probable, with a very nonzero tornado risk.

TOMORROW.

A cluster of supercells in E ND may hold a marginal all hazards threat

Thursday
Cluster of storms in a high instability environment capable of all hazards in SD

Friday

SE moving Nebraska/Iowa setup with fairly high instability, could be a interesting one.
 
MichelleH said:
Really hope that's the only MCS here for the year. Our power was off for over 10 freaking hours.
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Something tells me this just now getting started . Deeper into summer classic MCS type storms get rolling here in the south . Once we get into a nw flow pattern
 
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Small 5% Cig 1 tonight. Wouldn't be surprised if we get a decent MCS out of it.

1780499130057.png

Tomorrow currently sitting at only a 2% unhatched, but looks way more interesting on RAP soundings and sim ref (especially on the NAM NST of all places). It's another situation where the most potent ingredients don't time right with the main convection, but there's enough widespread isolated activity you'd think the conditions are going to end up being right somewhere.

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These systems are pretty pitiful and all these high-pressure ridges in key locations are still shredding everything, but the theorized effects of the Kara Sea Ridge I talked about last week could actually be coming to fruition for mid-June. In a similar fashion to how mergers can boost supercells, several pockets of low pressure may try to come together and form a respectable trough. This definitely appears to be a situation where rosby waves are disrupting the polar vortex and causing it to shake off pockets of cold air down South. While it's a big IF, and a lot of factors have to come together perfectly for a strong system to form, this is definitely some established science we're talking about here, and it seems like a safe bet we'll get at least one decent sized outbreak out of it.

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Latest for today :

, MOSTLY FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN SD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ND. THIS AREA IS ALSO THE MOST
LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AS A
RESULT, THERE APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVE INCREASE IN THE OVERALL
TORNADO RISK WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.
 
Bet that's a gorgeous supercell southeast of Murdo, SD right now. Wish I could chase these subtle Northern Plains setups but I still have PTSD from my 2016 "chasecation" which was penciled in weeks in advance for what turned out to be the week after Dodge City & Chapman; when I went out for a slight risk setup in the Dakotas since it was the only thing on the outlook all week and it turned out to be slop.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Genuinely the most dead I've ever seen this forum. Wonder what it's because of, inactive svr?

Tornado threat could increase with one or two strong soon in South Dakota with these supercells
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Definitely because of the inactive severe. I am surprised there isn't more climate discussion though. The potential super El Nino is quite interesting.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Definitely because of the inactive severe. I am surprised there isn't more climate discussion though. The potential super El Nino is quite interesting.
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Could be heading towards a historic event … we see how it effect the climate . Strong word ii am hearing could enhance the fall severe wx season . Which is our secondary severe wx season in the south
 
While there's no correlation between high impact Fall severe weather outbreaks during El Nino years, I do see where this coming Fall is busier than normal simply due to the fact that we have not had a very active Fall tornado season in the last 5 or 6 years (outside of one or two big outbreaks). Talking Mid-South/Deep South region.
 
JPWX said:
While there's no correlation between high impact Fall severe weather outbreaks during El Nino years, I do see where this coming Fall is busier than normal simply due to the fact that we have not had a very active Fall tornado season in the last 5 or 6 years (outside of one or two big outbreaks). Talking Mid-South/Deep South region.
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I still think we aren't at the peak of severe weather this year, especially due to the weird climatology this severe season has tbh.
 
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