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Severe Weather 2026

Smells like MCS/MCC potential to me during the month of June across the Mid-South region. I've enjoyed all this rain, but the lack of lightning has been depressing
 
First Severe Thunderstorm Watch in May for that area of Oregon since 2023.
 

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KakashiHatake2000 said:
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Kara Sea Ridges are interesting. Basically, heat waves over the arctic can lead to melting sea ice and colder air in the upper atmosphere escaping as troughs that swing down into mid latitudes in the Midwest.
The rapid decline of sea ice in this specific region releases heat into the atmosphere, which triggers large planetary and Rossby waves. These waves travel upward, disrupting and stretching the stratospheric polar vortex. When this vortex weakens, frigid, polar air spills southward into the mid-latitudes, bringing brutal cold bursts to the central and eastern U.S.
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CFS weekly is showing a major ridge in this region.

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The problem is there's also a huge ridge in the mid-pacific right over where the El Nino is establishing. I think these two ridges are going to act like a giant paper shredder to any trough that tries to swing its way down through Alaska. A few might sneak down through Canada, but they certainly won't be deep or negatively tilted.

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I think we're going to see a lot of little disturbances cause a lot of rain in some areas, and maybe a decent number of strong MCSs, but I don't think the climate is currently set up for explosive widespread outbreaks. My extremely bold prediction is that we're going to see below 1000 confirmed tornadoes for this year. Am I extremely confident in that statement? Not at all. But I also want to put my chips down and be able to say I predicted it here first lol.

My closing argument are these snapshots.

1780029459638.png1780029503550.png

And also the tornado report tracker. 2015/2016 were the last time we had a super El Nino.

torn-counts.png
 
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This years second season could be gnarly tho I feel the general public just forgets that intense outbreaks of tornadoes can and will occur in the second season like 2024, 2022, 2021, 2015, etc def something to watch it could be like last year and jack all occurs or we get things to occur, now its still May but def something to look out for as we progress through the year.
 
Cyclonic Paracosm said:
This years second season could be gnarly tho I feel the general public just forgets that intense outbreaks of tornadoes can and will occur in the second season like 2024, 2022, 2021, 2015, etc def something to watch it could be like last year and jack all occurs or we get things to occur, now its still May but def something to look out for as we progress through the year.
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Even then we also will have june-august in the high and northern plains, which, based on analogues, will likely be pretty active.
 
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