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Severe Weather 2026

Clancy said:
We can have severe storms facing us in 3 days and FFC's AFD will be like "there will probably be some rain, idk," so that they're mentioning it this far out is quite interesting. Still a lot to work out on key features and timing, though, so too early to be specific about what kinds of threats we're looking at.
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Nailed it! FFC's 3pm discussion... "Will continue to keep an eye on thunderstorm
potential Wednesday and Thursday next week, but prepared for at
least some rain in days 5 to 7."
 
...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Tue-Wed -- Southeast OK/ArkLaTex to Lower MS/TN
Valleys...

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase from the southern
Rockies to the Mid-South on Day 4/Tuesday as a southern stream
shortwave trough over the Southwest merges with an upper trough over
the Plains/Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will develop
over the southern Plains and slowly progress east in AR as a cold
front develops southeast across OK/AR and the Lower OH Valley. Ahead
of the front, rich Gulf moisture will return northward, and 60s to
near 70 F dewpoints are forecast by Tuesday afternoon/evening across
southeast OK and the ArkLaTex. Timing of thunderstorm development is
a bit uncertain as shortwave ridging may overspread the southern
Plains vicinity through afternoon. However, forcing for ascent
should increase with the approach of the surface front and as a
low-level jet increasing Tuesday evening. Moderate instability and
strong vertical shear should support severe thunderstorm activity
near the cold front from late afternoon into Tuesday night.

On Day 5/Wednesday, the Plains upper trough will migrate east,
extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by early
Thursday. The surface cold front will extend from the OH Valley into
north/central TX Wednesday morning and slowly progress southeast
through the period. Gulf moisture will return north and east across
the southern U.S. ahead of the front. While deep-layer flow will
largely be parallel to the surface front, moist and unstable airmass
ahead of the front should support some risk for severe
thunderstorms.
 
Confidence seems to be increasing on a fairly interesting-looking setup in the middle of next week. GFS and Euro have been consistent for several runs on trough ejection across the Mississippi Valley that would be favorable for severe weather. Taken verbatim, kinematics would be pretty robust, and we've got early May thermos to work with. Definitely a situation worth watching if you're in the Gulf Coast and Southeast.
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00z GFS/Euro/GEFS/EPS all were pretty consistent, as Clancy mentioned, on a trough ejecting out of the Southern Plains into the South Wed/Thu. All have a surface reflection, of varying strength, developing over Arkansas and translating NE into Eastern Kentucky. Robust flow above a moist and increasingly unstable low level airmass always brings fun times. Wed 21z-Thu 6z time frame catches my eye for the most active period. Of course, differences in models, timing, and how the trough amplifies/orients will persist and need to be ironed out this weekend. But this is shaping up to be the first solid severe weather threat for eastern portions of Dixie Alley since March 15th.
 
From Jason Simpson on FB:

Severe Weather Update: Mid-Week Outlook
While things are quiet right now, we are keeping a close eye on a developing weather system that could bring severe storms to Alabama later this week.
What you need to know now (In Plain English):
The Storm Prediction Center is currently watching a powerful system moving out of the Rockies. Here is what that means for us:
• The Setup: A surge of warm, sticky air from the Gulf will surge north by Wednesday, and that will destabilize the atmosphere- lots of storm fuel.
• The Timing: While the "Day 4" (Tuesday) action will mostly stay to our west in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the system shifts our way on Wednesday into Thursday morning.
• The Risk: Though the exact timing is still a bit fuzzy, confidence is increasing that we will see a round of severe weather. The main ingredients—instability in the air and strong wind shear—look to be in place.
What you should do:
The attached image shows model data for Wednesday evening. Since the window for these storms looks to be Wednesday night into early Thursday, now is the time to make sure your weather alerts are turned on and your "safe place" is ready.
Stay tuned for updates as the timing becomes clearer!
 
Man, I do hate we missed Timmer's Super Outbreak last month..... Darn

April 29th FB post: "It appears that we will see another uptick in severe weather potential around or after May 7th." And there we go
 
55+ kt 500 mb flow over Mississippi/Tennessee at times on the 6th and given the potential for somewhat a alright LLJ to set up in this vicinity with a decent look on shear vectors, think the 6th would need some decent monitoring. I think the low level response with this system will be key. Thermodynamics will be pretty sufficient with this one too. Eying a all hazards threat here
 
kcyalater said:
i am very confused when i look and see the temp outlook for central AL i do not us breaking 80* until the back end of may.

what is even going on. this may be the coldest may in decades.
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2005 had an unseasonably cold May if I'm getting my year right (at least for northern IN) so decades would be accurate. We had a brief flurry on May 1st that year and I burned the date into my brain to see if it would ever happen again, or happen later, and it never did until this year, once again on May 1st.
 
If you play your cards right, you could have a significant May Deep South severe weather outbreak Wednesday.....

Joking aside though I do believe Wednesday threat could end up being a bigger deal not the mention we'll have to monitor for additional heavy rain/flash flooding issues.
 
JPWX said:
If you play your cards right, you could have a significant May Deep South severe weather outbreak Wednesday.....

Joking aside though I do believe Wednesday threat could end up being a bigger deal not the mention we'll have to monitor for additional heavy rain/flash flooding issues.
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If you play your cards right, you could intercept at least 50+ dynamic pipes AND get rolled into a ditch this May - Weed Trimmer (probably?)
 
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