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Severe Weather 2026

We have low rain chances starting next week sometime 20-30% but also saw 18-19 an opportunity for bigger rain chances and 23-25 but that’s coming from Jason Simpson in Alabama and he said looks like both windows are for north Alabama too hope that the rest of the southeast can get rain I’m not sure if the graphic Noah Bergeron posted days ago applies still but hoping that we can get leftovers to help with the drought in the eastern portion of the yellow and outside of it
 
Nice to see I'm not the only one pointing this out. The way I see it for the Mid-South region, it's just been delayed, but not denied.
 
JPWX said:
Nice to see I'm not the only one pointing this out. The way I see it for the Mid-South region, it's just been delayed, but not denied.
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As long as it brings rain. It was very weird to get a notification on my phone last night for a fire weather warning - which was upgraded from a fire weather watch - for my area today. Didn't even realize that was a thing.
 


...Day 6/Fri - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...

Medium range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several forecast cycles in bringing a large-scale upper eastward from the Rockies into the Plains Friday/Friday night. This should result in surface cyclogenesis across portions of the Upper Midwest with a trailing cold front extending into the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place beneath strengthening southwesterly deep-layer flow. This should support a severe risk ahead of the front.
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For what it's worth, Google's WxNext2 likes Friday (source). Typically when it goes with dark purple for something, it keeps it purple until the day of the event. Of course I wouldn't give it the same weight as an SPC forecast but could be interesting to watch.

predictions_grid_wxnext_mean_any_2026041200.png
 
MichelleH said:
As long as it brings rain. It was very weird to get a notification on my phone last night for a fire weather warning - which was upgraded from a fire weather watch - for my area today. Didn't even realize that was a thing.
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seeing the brown spots on/around the greens at augusta this week was wild. knowing how meticulous they are there you know the drought has to be really bad for that to happen.

we could use the rain up here too. it's not as severe but all of virginia is in some level of drought right now.
 
warneagle said:
seeing the brown spots on/around the greens at augusta this week was wild. knowing how meticulous they are there you know the drought has to be really bad for that to happen.
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Yes the drought is very bad here in Georgia. The last time we had >0.1" of rain in Atlanta was March 17. It's been almost completely dry the whole spring, and it's not supposed to rain again until at least the end of the month. ANGC looked great despite the drought. At the same time, can't complain with completely dry conditions for the Masters - I bet they'd rather have that than trying to dodge afternoon popups!
 
RollTide18 said:
What do the chances for severe weather in the interior SE look like for the reason of the season? Outside of a couple of late night events in March, it’s been uncharacteristically quiet.
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Until we get a complete breakdown of this sub tropical ridge , I say slim to none
 
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