Also went from flatter base to a scuddier one on Tornado Paigey's feed.
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Incredible. Winkler is the red dot on the SPC map. Talk about precision with that forecast.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Heading to our stop for the night in McPherson, KS after chasing a high-based supercell in the vicinity of Tescott with some nice structure and an amazing sparkfest. Phone picture of my DSLR screen since I was doing video with my phone.
Kds86z
Member
Hey glad you got something..
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
His hype is so extreme it almost makes him seem more transparent lmao. Like hype trolling is just his brand at this point. Too bad there's still several people who share it and take it seriously. Especially on Facebook. My mom was even sending me hype posts this morning asking if I knew about the severe weather threat next week (hadn't warned my family yet because of all the uncertainty still surrounding it).
genie
Member
I had the chance to talk to Reed about how/why he hypes things to the degree he does. He maintains that he believes that being dramatic/theatrical and getting eyes on weather is ultimately what's most important. I argued that it causes the public to distrust meteorology if you cry wolf all the time.
Wow, props to you for actually pushing back on that point. I'm sure the fact he's financially dependant on how many eyes he gets on his content has nothing to do with his philosophy lol.
genie
Member
He was sweet, but very clear about his stance. I do believe he's a good person, intelligent, and genuinely means well, we just have differing opinions on some things.
Sharpy
Member
Pretty stout analog chiclets from CIPS for the extended period. CIPS has homed in on the Central US for severe weather throughout the majority of April into late month.
Also, La Niña is donezo officially yesterday per CPC’s advisory - El Niño still seems very likely as we progress further into the late spring and into summer.
Also, La Niña is donezo officially yesterday per CPC’s advisory - El Niño still seems very likely as we progress further into the late spring and into summer.
Tanner
Member
2018ing
I’m half joking, but yep lol
The more I thought about that tweet last night, the more it doesn't make sense. If you do go -NAO and allows more cold into the pattern, how would you change the pattern to be cooler than normal with nothing big happening. You can't. It's simple meteorology 101.
Weatherguyx
Member
akt1985
Member
If El Niño continues into the next winter, Florida might need to be on the lookout for increased tornadoes. A lot of Florida’s significant tornadoes occurred during an El Niño.
One thing worth considering is TC Sinlaku currently tracking through the WPAC. By around hour 100 it will have turned north and begin influencing the Pacific Jet.
You can see this quite nicely on the GEFS, as the latent heat release from the TC adds 'energy' to the jet. This then has downstream impacts on how the jet behaves as it enters North America.
The problem is TCs themselves are quite hard to forecast, and so are their jet stream interactions. MJO and other teleconnections aside, this will add significant uncertainty to the end of April period in my opinion, and its going to be hard to make a verdict either way on how active things may look tornado/severe wise. Worth being extra wary of any model output over the next couple weeks.
You can see this quite nicely on the GEFS, as the latent heat release from the TC adds 'energy' to the jet. This then has downstream impacts on how the jet behaves as it enters North America.
The problem is TCs themselves are quite hard to forecast, and so are their jet stream interactions. MJO and other teleconnections aside, this will add significant uncertainty to the end of April period in my opinion, and its going to be hard to make a verdict either way on how active things may look tornado/severe wise. Worth being extra wary of any model output over the next couple weeks.
Again, this typhoon believe it or not, hints at increase severe weather for areas further east. The typhoon rule is if it recurves south of Japan, you look for a ridge in the West/trough in the East in roughly 7 to 10 days.
tennessee storm chaser
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Don’t. You want trough look west and a ridge east for chance severe weather further east ?
I said IF it does. But let's say it does and trough pushes east. That would increase severe weather risk as it (the trough) progresses eastward. You'll get a week of below normal temps at most since this is a progressive pattern. IF that occurs.