• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2026

00z GEFS looks pretty good for the 4/13-14 timeframe.
IMG_4549.jpeg
Outside the AI GFS, the available 00z runs from the globals show quite the trough; compact, negatively tilted, pretty good looking to me. The major difference between them, unsurprisingly, is timing. I imagine that’s to be expected this far out. I took these screenshots at different times in the forecast cycle for each, but all of them really have a similar shape for being this far out (GFS, GDPS, ICON, AIGFS, respectively):
IMG_4545.jpegIMG_4547.jpegIMG_4548.jpegIMG_4546.jpeg
It is 9 days away and a lot can change, but this is something to pay attention to in this bit of a lull we’ve been in. This upcoming pattern seems busy, regardless of the mode or intensity of the resulting severe weather.
 
Last edited:
6pm April 12th in Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa. Looks like we might have some instability to work with here. There's potentially going to be over 4000 j/kg SB CAPE in Kansas based on the last sounding..

1775454363427.png1775454479926.png1775454490277.png1775454777307.png
 
day6prob.gif
day7prob.gif

On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase
over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow
strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe
threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models
have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday
afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near
this instability axis.

...Sunday/Day 7...
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast
to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico.
Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by
Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered
severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline
in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into
the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the
approaching trough.
 
A active severe weather sequence is coming. The magnitude is unknown yet, but we can decipher some of these days in range to the best we can with the model data avaliable.

Thursday looks to be our start to the sequence. A marginally favorable parameter space for a supercell or two, capable of large hail, damaging winds and the tornado threat looks to be uncertain with this day. Central Kansas may need to watch out for this one.

Saturday is beginning to look like a very interesting day severe weather wise in the Southern Plains. With adequate ventilation, supercells off a Plains dryline seem doable, with the potential for all hazards in the Texas Panhandle.

Sunday is definitely a potentially widespread day given the aerial extent of our warm sector, but still looks like a pretty sporadic day for all hazards up and down the Plains from Iowa to S TX.

My concerns for Monday have grown a good bit with the GFS consistently depicting a volatile parameter space in Central Kansas. This day will feature a healthy, wide warm sector and with very strong low level shear accompanying and overlapping the majority of the warm sector, there's potential for a notable day here. The warm sector isn't particularly strongly forced aj for now, vectors do support a discrete-semi discrete mode.

It's a day that will need to be watched closely.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
A active severe weather sequence is coming. The magnitude is unknown yet, but we can decipher some of these days in range to the best we can with the model data avaliable.

Thursday looks to be our start to the sequence. A marginally favorable parameter space for a supercell or two, capable of large hail, damaging winds and the tornado threat looks to be uncertain with this day. Central Kansas may need to watch out for this one.

Saturday is beginning to look like a very interesting day severe weather wise in the Southern Plains. With adequate ventilation, supercells off a Plains dryline seem doable, with the potential for all hazards in the Texas Panhandle.

Sunday is definitely a potentially widespread day given the aerial extent of our warm sector, but still looks like a pretty sporadic day for all hazards up and down the Plains from Iowa to S TX.

My concerns for Monday have grown a good bit with the GFS consistently depicting a volatile parameter space in Central Kansas. This day will feature a healthy, wide warm sector and with very strong low level shear accompanying and overlapping the majority of the warm sector, there's potential for a notable day here. The warm sector isn't particularly strongly forced aj for now, vectors do support a discrete-semi discrete mode.

It's a day that will need to be watched closely.
Click to expand...
Sunday-Wednesday all look like synoptically evident days at this range and it even looks somewhat active after that, definitely looks like its starting to pick up.
 
Sharpy said:
Here comes the hype train that is Reed (yes, there are signs that severe weather will pick up especially across the South/central plains as the month goes on, but come on now):

Click to expand...

If anyone had an April 2011 mention on your bingo card, there you go.

Every spring since 2011 has had at least one person say “this is reminding me of Spring 2011”
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Any moment now on Reed's Facebook.....

"if you play your cards right, you could catch over 70+ tornadoes this April"
Click to expand...
My friends and I have a thing where if we are highly confident in a sporting event result, we say it’s a “mortgage game”.

I just sold my house, so therefore there will be no mortgage games from me for the foreseeable future.

But with that being said, Reed saying this - put the house on it! He probably will before Friday.
 
Reed's pick up line: "You had me at 2011"
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top