RFD66
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Went through my 100+ tornado outbreak sequence spreadsheet as well as the MJO archives, and found the phases each outbreak (from 1980-present) took place during.
Then I grabbed the list of all EF4 tornadoes from 2000-present and what phase those happened during. Phase 7 is just not a good time in general for tornadoes (weak or strong), so it looks like we might have a few weeks before activity potentially picks up again in the second week of April.
Based on my research, the sweet spot for violent tornadoes really seems to be right in this red circle. The strength of the MJO doesn't really seem to matter too much, but it does seem like activity usually occurres 2-4 weeks after peaks in strength, regardless of phase.
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WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
06
06z put the system slightly south but the difference is it increases its windfield meaning we essentially get the same impacts as the 18z, near 70 mph wind gusts. Really beginning to become concerned overall for impact from this one especially southern coasts
MidTNWx
Member
How many times a year do y’all deal with these types of events in Ireland/UK?
Sharpy
Member
May I ask why specifically 2011? There’s been other years that have had quiet Marches and active Aprils…
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Depressions and low pressure systems in general, they happen fairly often, it's just since they first started being named in 2015, people over here think it's got more common. For April, i can't really think of a system over here that brought this type of intensity, but it isn't in anyway historic historic like Eowyn was.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
There are still major caveats and disagreements but I am watching this scenario closely, not to say this is guaranteed in anyway
- Moderator
- #949
Regarding 2011's tornado activity as it pertains to Alabama:
Before the pattern flipped on 4/15/11 with the Forgotten Outbreak, there were 13 confirmed tornadoes in Alabama.
8 in February (with 5 of those on 2/28/11), 4 in March and one on April 11th.
6 of those were EF0, 5 were EF1 and 2 were EF2.
Not saying this has anything to do with this year, I just like sharing the research.
Before the pattern flipped on 4/15/11 with the Forgotten Outbreak, there were 13 confirmed tornadoes in Alabama.
8 in February (with 5 of those on 2/28/11), 4 in March and one on April 11th.
6 of those were EF0, 5 were EF1 and 2 were EF2.
Not saying this has anything to do with this year, I just like sharing the research.
Kds86z
Member
Oh wow. Low start to that year
It certainly goes to show just how little correlation there is between early-season activity and late-season activity (or, for that matter, activity throughout the entire year).
Some years have their activity spread out throughout the entire year, some years basivally front-load their activity, some years back-load their activity, some have intermittent bursts, etc., etc., etc. As such, trying to predict how a given year might end up playing out based only on early-year activity/lack thereof is basically a fool's errand.
Some years have their activity spread out throughout the entire year, some years basivally front-load their activity, some years back-load their activity, some have intermittent bursts, etc., etc., etc. As such, trying to predict how a given year might end up playing out based only on early-year activity/lack thereof is basically a fool's errand.
Tanner
Member
2025 I would put into the dispersed activity category. 2024 I would put into the backloaded category. Same with seasons like 2013. 2023 was a front loaded year with late season activity in mid June. This year, I dunno, it feels and looks like a 2009 or 2018 type season to me. The only thing that remains to be seen is the higher temperature anomalies in the gulf, which I believe were cooler than normal in 2018.
akt1985
Member
What is the severe weather threat looking like for Easter Sunday, April 5?
tennessee storm chaser
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Question is. , when things trend back up will it be the usual areas getting hit hard this year like Midwest upper Ohio valley or even upper plains . Let’s see the ridge holds and keeps dixie alley and Midsoith areas quiet …..because if so , I got make plans do little chasing else where maybe .
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Sharpy
Member
Thanks for that info, Michelle.
I just get frustrated whenever people start to make assumptions and thinking that similar weather patterns that happened in years before, etc. all of a sudden = April 2011. Not saying that anyone is doing that here, but it’s happened numerous times in the weather community. There’s a lot that goes into seasonal and monthly outlooks for weather in general.
April 2011 is upper echelon, if not the top of upper echelon for any month severe weather wise. That month also took place in a strong, resurgent La Niña. If you look at 1998-99 was a strong La Niña, yet we did not have a super outbreak, but nevertheless impactful events.
Correlation ≠ causation.
Since 2011, March (average: 80) has had 9 years of above normal tornado activity (2012, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023) and April (average: 182) has had 7 years of above normal tornado activity (2012, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2024). 2025 is left out because SPC does not yet have the finalized numbers in on their site.
And I totally get your point @Sharpy. There's so many nowadays who throw in April 2011 just willy-nilly without really looking (by looking I mean simply using it against past years/current pattern overall)
And I totally get your point @Sharpy. There's so many nowadays who throw in April 2011 just willy-nilly without really looking (by looking I mean simply using it against past years/current pattern overall)
And 2021 was an EXTREMELY backloaded year.
Sharpy
Member
Absolutely! I appreciate your work and was not trying to push back against your points at all. I work in data/research so I like to have a “case” before making points