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Severe Weather 2026

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That was quite a lil severe outbreak we had there... don't see that many three body scatter spikes in such a short time in February all that often

Here's the Birmingham sounding for what it's worth... very straight speed shear hodo supporting robust splits but not too strong to push the hailstones out prematurely, surprisingly good nearly 8°C/km midlevel lapse rates, seasonally impressive CAPE in the hail growth layer aloft; that'll do it

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Feeling super confident that was a legit tornado even with a <2% risk, the 00z sounding shows enough low level helicity with the modest southerly advection flow to get a brief low level meso... not a lot of helicity but it's there, especially with that cell turning to hard to the right and absorbing several other cells. Certainly some small scale influences with cell mergers just prior to that could have helped
 
Equus said:
Feeling super confident that was a legit tornado even with a <2% risk, the 00z sounding shows enough low level helicity with the modest southerly advection flow to get a brief low level meso... not a lot of helicity but it's there, especially with that cell turning to hard to the right and absorbing several other cells. Certainly some small scale influences with cell mergers just prior to that could have helped
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Assuming this is about the Spann comment, it's kinda funny because everyone I've seen on twitter disagrees with him. I don't think I've ever seen a gustnado not only condense but also deal low end damage to several structures...
 
eep said:
Assuming this is about the Spann comment, it's kinda funny because everyone I've seen on twitter disagrees with him. I don't think I've ever seen a gustnado not only condense but also deal low end damage to several structures...
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Aside from that, I don't think I've ever seen someone disagree with Spann on anything. Bad calls happen, though, and it is so ambiguous that I don't blame him.
 
Yesterday was impressive for hail ad the amount of discrete cells that fired. It just makes you realise how lucky we are that high end parameter spaces don't interact with enough forcing and spacing like we seen yesterday to promote long lived supercells all that often.

Regarding the gustnado situation, i wonder if Spann was reluctant due to the lack of a tornado risk yesterday? And he didn't want to jump the gun? Still interesting wording as it was clearly a weak tornado.

Sometimes on these type of days where tornadoes are missed, offices either realise and correct the mistake. OR they do this..

Either way, it looks like a swirling and damaging column of air to me so hopefully we see a survey from it. The hail swathes were interesting too.

That 00z BMX sounding perfectly explains why. Strong CAPE above the HGZ layer, steep lapse rates, and favorable hodograph for a weak tornado/dominant hail threat.
 

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WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Yesterday was impressive for hail ad the amount of discrete cells that fired. It just makes you realise how lucky we are that high end parameter spaces don't interact with enough forcing and spacing like we seen yesterday to promote long lived supercells all that often.

Regarding the gustnado situation, i wonder if Spann was reluctant due to the lack of a tornado risk yesterday? And he didn't want to jump the gun? Still interesting wording as it was clearly a weak tornado.

Sometimes on these type of days where tornadoes are missed, offices either realise and correct the mistake. OR they do this..

Either way, it looks like a swirling and damaging column of air to me so hopefully we see a survey from it. The hail swathes were interesting too.

That 00z BMX sounding perfectly explains why. Strong CAPE above the HGZ layer, steep lapse rates, and favorable hodograph for a weak tornado/dominant hail threat.
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Survey in my neighborhood of my sister for tornado damage today in pinson from that storm.

Two distinct tornado survey areas, one in Trussville and one in pinson I think from what I read
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
*looks at Fort Worth intensely*
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i still have no idea how that hook-signature, strong & clear velocity couplet, cc-drop associated tornado was not warned, surveyed or acknowledged. all i can think of is that storm spotter coverage in the urban fort-worth area would've been more aware if there was a tornado than via radar analysis, but at the same time i think anything with that figure should at minimum have a tor possible tag or a radar-indicated warning
 
Pretty much all measures support the idea that March will start active and stay active. Still not too many specific dates and times to talk about yet, although the SPC just delineated that D6 15%, but clearly we could be in for a potentially very rambunctious start to the month.
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Ebaad Jaffery said:
i still have no idea how that hook-signature, strong & clear velocity couplet, cc-drop associated tornado was not warned, surveyed or acknowledged. all i can think of is that storm spotter coverage in the urban fort-worth area would've been more aware if there was a tornado than via radar analysis, but at the same time i think anything with that figure should at minimum have a tor possible tag or a radar-indicated warning
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There was chasers in Fort Worth as it happened. Still don't know why it wasn't even warned
 
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