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Severe Weather 2026

Seems like the January 7-9th timeframe has some agreement on the 12z operationals and something that resembles a signal on ensembles for at least some level of severe weather, mostly in the South. With how weak 2025's second season has been, though, I'm not a believer yet.

EDIT: Moved from Severe Weather 2025.
 
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Signal has been consistent enough for long enough I think it's reasonable to say the first legitimate severe threat of the New Year could occur from the southern Plains to the Southeast around the 1/9-11 timeframe.

06GFS.jpg
 
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Still a long ways out yet but one thing that stands out to me for the second week of January on the last few GFS runs is the idea of a lead shortwave or two from the 6th-8th that act as a "primer," pulling moisture northward from the Gulf but without scouring it back out before the main trough ejects. Definitely worth watching if that idea holds up.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Still a long ways out yet but one thing that stands out to me for the second week of January on the last few GFS runs is the idea of a lead shortwave or two from the 6th-8th that act as a "primer," pulling moisture northward from the Gulf but without scouring it back out before the main trough ejects. Definitely worth watching if that idea holds up.
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EPS is on board with that lead shortwave as well. 12z ensemble run seemingly depicts it as sliding across the Ohio valley and a very nice pool of moisture in the gulf for the 9th-11th window.
 
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I've been keeping a eye on that myself. I was off on when I thought the big severe weather event would happen, but I see it just got pushed back potentially. Like I've been saying, you have to get something big to flip the pattern and from what I've been seeing on the models, this could be what flips the pattern from Fall to Winter.

Happy New Year by the way!
 

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Kinda funny that the GFS is already showing upper 50s dewpoints all the way to the WI/IL border at 12/00Z, but yet again with the deeply saturated profiles and p***-poor lapse rates leading to negligible instability.
 
I expect the first county in North MS to have both a Tornado Warning and Tornado to be Monroe County. LOL! It'll end up being true to the point though.
 
Just looked at the latest operational/ensemble runs of the GFS/Euro.

Differences on timing and Low placement between the two of course. Which isn’t surprising at this stage since I would still consider it “La La land”. Both also show a more positively tilted trough. Way too early to lock in trough geometry, however. Both ensembles continue to depict a moist gulf primed from the preceding wave.
 
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