Severe Weather 2026

[N0mz]

La Niña advisory issued: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Favored to transition back to neutral by early 2026

 

[Kds86z]

 

[KevinH]

Big picture suggests like a front loaded 2026 season with an earlier than normal kind of focus on the South and Mid South. For the plains it’s kinda gonna depend on the pattern rather the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). I think overall probabilities point to a pretty active early season, to more of an average or possibly a below average season, just my two cents, obviously it’s still super early but just a thought

This reminds me that warm winters tend to not go very well here in the Deep South.

 

[JPWX]

Well, it's a good thing I went ahead and got a more comfortable computer chair then for those long storm monitoring hours that are just around the corner.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

nice jp looks comfy thats for sure

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

I know kds86z posted this but was supposed to show a map posted it in my phone but unsure if it worked

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Sharpy]

This reminds me that warm winters tend to not go very well here in the Deep South.

Every season and year are different - correlations are very important in weather and matter, but doesn’t always mean it’s a slam dunk that “winter isn’t going to go well because it’s warm”.

 

[Sharpy]

I’ve seen Convective Chronicles use this map in a few seasonal outlooks before, so it seems like we may get a mix of 2024 and 2025 as the busy spots. I’m not for hyperbole or overhyping anything, but 2024 saw a lot of action in the S/C Plains and this year a lot of Lower/Mid-Mississippi action. We’ll see how it all pans out.

Meanwhile, I’ll happily enjoy the dry pattern while it lasts.

 

[KevinH]

Every season and year are different - correlations are very important in weather and matter, but doesn’t always mean it’s a slam dunk that “winter isn’t going to go well because it’s warm”.

Well, I have lived in the DEEEEEEP South for 14 years so I am well aware that not every warm winter is a slam dunk lol

I was just TRYING to say that some of my most “memorable” (active) winters here have been winters that are warm. Sheesh

 

[Sharpy]

Well, I have lived in the DEEEEEEP South for 14 years so I am well aware that not every warm winter is a slam dunk lol

I was just TRYING to say that some of my most “memorable” (active) winters here have been winters that are warm. Sheesh

Completely understand! No worries. That makes sense.

 

[Sharpy]

I’ve seen Convective Chronicles use this map in a few seasonal outlooks before, so it seems like we may get a mix of 2024 and 2025 as the busy spots. I’m not for hyperbole or overhyping anything, but 2024 saw a lot of action in the S/C Plains and this year a lot of Lower/Mid-Mississippi action. We’ll see how it all pans out.

Meanwhile, I’ll happily enjoy the dry pattern while it lasts.

A similar year that I wouldn’t be surprised to perhaps see as an analog based on the info above, 2012 may be a similar setup. Alabama was busy in January and late February/early March with severe weather (1/23 and 2/28-3/2) and we ended up having 0 (!!!) tornadoes in April after what happened 2011.

Meanhwhile, 2/28-3/2 had a lot of tornadoes in the mid south and Ohio Valley. Look back at that map above. North Alabama was affected too, albeit not as much as the areas north of there. Then, we had the 4/13-14 outbreak in the Plains. That would fall in line with an active April in the Plains if this general idea were to be followed, with earlier severe weather possibly starting in mid/late January.

I am also feeling really good at the moment while typing this, so I am perhaps grasping at straws with this, but it may make sense.

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