Severe Weather 2025

[Kds86z]

Yeah the shear is decent and low lcls

D EVENING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT, SUPPORTING
EFFECTIVE-LAYER STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY ON THE ORDER OF 100-200
M2/S2 FOR ANY SUPERCELL MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WITH TIME, CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL
PROFILES AND EXTREMELY LOW LCLS. WITH ESRH ON THE ORDER OF 200 M2/S2
AND VERY LOW LCLS, SUPERCELLS (BOTH ISOLATED AND IN A LINE) AS WELL
AS ANY LINEAR SEGMENTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES

 

[Kds86z]

LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-290300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LOUISIANA
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A COUPLE
TORNADOES, STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL. STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS TOWARDS EVENING
WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
NATCHITOCHES LA TO 35 MILES WEST OF LAKE CHARLES LA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

---

 

[Kds86z]

 

[N0mz]

Pretty significant CAPE there, some of these should blow up and undergo some mergers.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Mount Enterprise Tx tor warn base

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Things going better then i thought they'd would. One tornado so far to verify it.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Tornado warned storm near Woodville, TX. I may have eyes from traffic cams soon when it approaches the Kirbyville area!

 

[Kds86z]

Dang this one looks potent

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Significant tornado *could* be on the ground, this is the Woodville and Warren tornado warning

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Rotation looks primarily in the clear air for now but supercell COULD ramp up. I will have eyes on it from cameras in the area

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[joshoctober16]

yikes

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 48136
yikes

That supercell has a tornado possible tag.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Warranted a 2% in advance like i thought it would. Cells dealing with mergers and plus elevated too. Any front interaction will favor a brief tornado threat but at this point, the event is kinda beginning to diminish

 

[Kds86z]

Warranted a 2% in advance like i thought it would. Cells dealing with mergers and plus elevated too. Any front interaction will favor a brief tornado threat but at this point, the event is kinda beginning to diminish

Yep. I gues we got one confirmed tornado I think