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Severe Weather 2025

The coastal area near Houston looks pretty volatile with parameters, would say a 10% tornado risk is not out of the equation, but will see. Damaging wind looks like the biggest threat.

imo I think a thread could be warranted for today and tommorow
 
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EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AS WELL AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL
VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT HAIL POSSIBLE. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP, WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
SRH INCREASING TOWARD 200 M2/S2 BY 00Z
 
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I don't see a tornado threat with today, but tomorrow morning, I could definitely see a few embedded tornadoes if a surface inversion can be broke in SE TX. Chances are certainly there but low chance.

Regarding tomorrow in the SE TX vicinity, hope @AJS has safety precautions in place in case a tornadic storm comes by. Personally, the 12z HRRR for SE TX would be trouble but the 18z just rendered in and is a significant flip flop off the last 48 hr run. Here is your deal. If supercells remain surface based tmrw, a couple tornadoes and possibly even a strong one is in the cards but my basis for that is instability. If supercells just are completely elevated, damaging wind and large hail would be the better scenario. Certainly can be a interesting day tmrw and I don't think we may be seeing the full picture just yet.
 

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WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I don't see a tornado threat with today, but tomorrow morning, I could definitely see a few embedded tornadoes if a surface inversion can be broke in SE TX. Chances are certainly there but low chance.

Regarding tomorrow in the SE TX vicinity, hope @AJS has safety precautions in place in case a tornadic storm comes by. Personally, the 12z HRRR for SE TX would be trouble but the 18z just rendered in and is a significant flip flop off the last 48 hr run. Here is your deal. If supercells remain surface based tmrw, a couple tornadoes and possibly even a strong one is in the cards but my basis for that is instability. If supercells just are completely elevated, damaging wind and large hail would be the better scenario. Certainly can be an interesting day tmrw and I don't think we may be seeing the full picture just yet.
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I’ve definitely got a plan in store. I don’t really know how it’s gonna play out, but regardless i’m not taking any chances tomorrow in case one comes by. I’m actually quite nervous because if those storms can fully tap into the environment, a strong tornado is definitely possible.
 
AJS said:
@WeathermanLeprechaun would say the main tornado threat for the Houston metro is more afternoon/evening or more of a morning early afternoon threat?
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Can go either way honestly and i think both threats are generally in the same ballpark of intensity. I would just watch out but both sides of the cake are conditional. Regardless, keep your eye out!
 
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