Severe Weather 2025

KakashiHatake2000 said:

yall should really check out the merch that matthew cappucci is selling he also likes to go about explaining the science behind things on x and debunk the silly stuff that conspiracy theories say on there
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Love talking to Matthew! Been a while since we last chatted, but the guy is absolutely hilarious. The stories he has told me are quite something.
 
Started a thread as it looks like some more potential events will be coming up this week:

CheeselandSkies

Thread 'Severe Threat July 6-11'

After a brief respite from severe convective hazards (wind, hail and tornadoes), although unfortunately not from dangerous and deadly flash flooding, across the CONUS, SPC has an Enhanced risk for parts of the central High Plains for tomorrow (30% hatched wind, 5% tornado contours).

Then there is a Day 5 contour out for parts of the Northern Plains on Thursday. The GFS suggests that could continue into the Midwest on Friday, although location and ceiling bounces around from run to run.
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Tanner said:
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It's been awhile since we've such a long duration severe weather season like this. Literally, since March, there has been at least a few severe weather episodes every month. It seems July might be similar.
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Man. It sure is a crazy coincidence something this catastrophic AND preventable would occur in the same year of massive cuts at the NWS. Whether it was directly or indirectly related, there's no question it had an impact.

Five former NWS directors (for both Democrat and Republican administrations) penned an open letter on May 2nd that outlined this exact scenario.

"Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life[...] This could include making fewer highly tailored forecasts, as well as performing less outreach on social media and to local officials and emergency managers. Such outreach has been a major goal of the NWS to make sure communities are better prepared before extreme weather hits. The forecasters in the NWS offices are 'community experts' who have close working relationships with emergency managers, school districts and other local decision-makers. Without those proactive efforts, you’re basically watching the storm."

It's one thing to have meteorologists, who remain stationed at computers and issue warnings, it's a whole other element to actually have enough staff to ensure local communities are safe and accounted for. This conversation belongs in this thread, not hidden away in an echo chamber with people who are already well aware of the issues we're facing.

www.scientificamerican.com

The National Weather Service Is Understaffed and Facing Huge Cuts—That Could Cost Lives

Weather experts warn that staff cuts at the National Weather Service that have been made by the Trump administration are a danger to public safety as tornadoes, hurricanes and heat loom this spring and summer
www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Man. It sure is a crazy coincidence something this catastrophic AND preventable would occur in the same year of massive cuts at the NWS. Whether it was directly or indirectly related, there's no question it had an impact.

Five former NWS directors (for both Democrat and Republican administrations) penned an open letter on May 2nd that outlined this exact scenario.

"Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life[...] This could include making fewer highly tailored forecasts, as well as performing less outreach on social media and to local officials and emergency managers. Such outreach has been a major goal of the NWS to make sure communities are better prepared before extreme weather hits. The forecasters in the NWS offices are 'community experts' who have close working relationships with emergency managers, school districts and other local decision-makers. Without those proactive efforts, you’re basically watching the storm."

It's one thing to have meteorologists, who remain stationed at computers and issue warnings, it's a whole other element to actually have enough staff to ensure local communities are safe and accounted for. This conversation belongs in this thread, not hidden away in an echo chamber with people who are already well aware of the issues we're facing.

www.scientificamerican.com

The National Weather Service Is Understaffed and Facing Huge Cuts—That Could Cost Lives

Weather experts warn that staff cuts at the National Weather Service that have been made by the Trump administration are a danger to public safety as tornadoes, hurricanes and heat loom this spring and summer
www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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I don't disagree that the cuts are going to be a general and prevailing problem, and were poorly and hastily thought out.

However.... in this particular case I'm not sure what more the NWS could have done even with a bigger budget or staff? The premise that all these lives would have been saved belies the fact that the infrastructure and drainage/topography of that area is the main issue here and that the timing of this was literally a worst-case-scenario with it occurring between 1am-6am (when everyone is asleep) on a packed river on a holiday weekend.

Pinpoint forecasting for flash flooding can't get more accurate than what the NWS did here. They issued a flash flood warning after 1am and a flash flood emergency at 4am. But with the infrastructure of that area and the speed with which the water rose, 25-30' in less than an hour for the areas around Hunt and Ingram, this was always going to be a very lethal event unfortunately. That's literally a tsunami of water invading an area with limited road access to escape, let alone early in the morning on a holiday when there's thousands of extra people packed into the area. You're just not going to be able to evacuate everyone in the amount of time they had.

The Guadalupe is so flash flood prone that that area really needs to seriously consider retooling their infrastructure around the river, or at least creating a coastal like system of evacuation routes and warning sirens like they do with tsunami hazard zones.
 
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