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Severe Weather 2025

Grand Poo Bah said:
18z GFS is basically showing a tornado outbreak in Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin Tuesday evening. EF3+ soundings all over the place. Haven't seen it this aggressive since mid May. I'm on my phone traveling so can't post pics, but are you seeing this @CheeselandSkies?
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There's a thread for discussing next week.

Atlantic

Thread 'Severe Weather Threat June 15-23'

We are just shy of reaching the D4 outlook as the D3 has up to slight risk now for June 14. The SPC hasn’t highlighted a risk area yet, but I figured I could start the discussion thread for it with this;
IMG_9059.jpeg
They mentioned that categorical risk upgrades appear likely as the periods get closer in time.
  • Like

...and no, I'm not really seeing it. Composite indices (EHI/supercell composite are pretty impressive, but a lot of the soundings have capping issues). There will probably be a severe threat with some tornado potential, but nothing I'd call an "outbreak" at this point.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
There's a thread for discussing next week.

Atlantic

Thread 'Severe Weather Threat June 15-23'

We are just shy of reaching the D4 outlook as the D3 has up to slight risk now for June 14. The SPC hasn’t highlighted a risk area yet, but I figured I could start the discussion thread for it with this;
IMG_9059.jpeg
They mentioned that categorical risk upgrades appear likely as the periods get closer in time.
  • Like

...and no, I'm not really seeing it. Composite indices (EHI/supercell composite are pretty impressive, but a lot of the soundings have capping issues). There will probably be a severe threat with some tornado potential, but nothing I'd call an "outbreak" at this point.
Click to expand...
phew hopefully just a small window out in open fields out in nowhere and everything congeals into a line at least thats what the euro is showing but yeah hopefully no t-word outbreak
 
CheeselandSkies said:
There's a thread for discussing next week.

Atlantic

Thread 'Severe Weather Threat June 15-23'

We are just shy of reaching the D4 outlook as the D3 has up to slight risk now for June 14. The SPC hasn’t highlighted a risk area yet, but I figured I could start the discussion thread for it with this;
IMG_9059.jpeg
They mentioned that categorical risk upgrades appear likely as the periods get closer in time.
  • Like

...and no, I'm not really seeing it. Composite indices (EHI/supercell composite are pretty impressive, but a lot of the soundings have capping issues). There will probably be a severe threat with some tornado potential, but nothing I'd call an "outbreak" at this point.
Click to expand...
Definitely early
 
Kds86z said:
Don’t fear tornado outbreaks until few days or couple days out or day of is my motto :) wayyyyyy to many factors to consider.
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I mean, it's one thing if there's been really good model consistency and agreement, but we haven't really seen that with this upcoming setup. GFS in particular has varied a lot from run to run especially with the timing of the waves, which will be critical for if/where and when anything higher-end happens.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I mean, it's one thing if there's been really good model consistency and agreement, but we haven't really seen that with this upcoming setup. GFS in particular has varied a lot from run to run especially with the timing of the waves, which will be critical for if/where/and when anything higher-end happens.
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Yeah I just personally am skeptical until end. My nature lol.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I mean, it's one thing if there's been really good model consistency and agreement, but we haven't really seen that with this upcoming setup. GFS in particular has varied a lot from run to run especially with the timing of the waves, which will be critical for if/where and when anything higher-end happens.
Click to expand...
what about with the gfs outputting hurricanes in the gulf
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I mean, it's one thing if there's been really good model consistency and agreement, but we haven't really seen that with this upcoming setup. GFS in particular has varied a lot from run to run especially with the timing of the waves, which will be critical for if/where and when anything higher-end happens.
Click to expand...

It seems like the GFS has been pretty consistent with it for 3 or 4 days now. But it has definitely escalated the last day or two and has been consistently aggressive for 4 or 5 runs now. It's interesting almost all the analogs are from 2004 and before, since there hasn't really been a BIG June outbreak since then. Not the best sign.

Also waiting to move into the new thread until there's more certainty with storm mode and the extent of the threat. Not currently enough activity on the site to justify two threads at the moment imo. There's only like 5 or 6 people actively commenting right now lol.
 
12z GFS is now more in line with the Day 4 SPC outlook. Pulled this sounding from Missouri. EF3+ soundings across the state. Looks like the high Cape isn't making it up into Iowa and Minnesota anymore. I'll start posting in the other thread tomorrow depending on the Day 3 outlook tonight.

IMG_2420.png
 
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