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Severe Weather 2025

It does look like it may get quite active, but nothing big or synoptically evident appears to be on the horizon. It seems like a lot of mesoscale days will be apparent though, just based on the operational GFS and Euro right now. Seems like there’s a lot of benign troughing in the future for the west in general. Again, nothing too significant though.
 
Kds86z said:
www.atlantanewsfirst.com

‘The Wire’ actor’s son thrown nearly 300 feet from home in Locust Grove tornado

The teen’s father, Tray Chaney, identified the victim as Malachi Chaney.
www.atlantanewsfirst.com www.atlantanewsfirst.com
Click to expand...
Very impressed (in a bad way) that this thing reached EF-2 strength - high-end EF-2 strength, at that. It's been quite the week for Southeast surprise tornadoes, between this one and the mini-outbreak in the Huntsville area.
NOUS42 KFFC 301929
PNSFFC
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-310730-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
329 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025


...NWS Damage Survey for 05/29/25 Tornado Event...

..Henry County Tornado...

Rating: EF2
Estimated Peak Wind: 135 mph
Path Length /statute/: 1.82 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 200 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 2

Start Date: 05/29/2025
Start Time: 03:31 PM EDT
Start Location: 2 NE Luella / Henry County / GA
Start Lat/Lon: 33.3766 / -84.1499

End Date: 05/29/2025
End Time: 03:36 PM EDT
End Location: 2 SSE Blacksville / Henry County / GA
End Lat/Lon: 33.4 / -84.1361

Survey Summary:
An EF2 tornado with maximum winds of 135 mph quickly developed
during the afternoon hours of May 29, 2025. A storm which had a
history of very weak and broad rotation moved into southern Henry
County and quickly spawned a tornado as it crossed Bethlehem Road
at approximately 3:31pm EDT. Just north of Bethlehem Road, a few
trees were downed to indicate where the tornado first touched
down. As the tornado tracked northeast, it quickly intensified to
EF1 strength, snapping and uprooting trees in a wooded region
behind several homes along Curry Ridge in the Laurel Creek
Subdivision. The tornado reached maximum intensity as it reached
Fresh Laurel Lane in the subdivision. Several homes sustained EF1
damage near the end of the road including significant loss of
siding and shingles, windows blown out, and in one instance,
partial collapse of the roof/wall structure. The last home along
the street is where the tornado reached maximum intensity of EF2.
The home was completely destroyed with the exception of a small
interior closet on the first floor where the clothes were still
hanging. Both occupants of the home were injured, one critically
when he was thrown 287 feet from the house into the nearby woods
according to Henry County EMA. The home demonstrated strength in
the construction with attached baseboards including the use of
clips, however the failure point was in the wall attachment where
the wall studs were only nailed into the baseplate. While a high
end EF2 tornado is determined for this point, there was not enough
evidence to support a higher rating of EF3. Debris was thrown
hundreds of yards to the east and the northeast from the home
including significant portions of the roof, clothing, and a metal
pipe used in A/C unit. To the northeast of the destroyed home, all
the trees that remained in a field being cleared were snapped and
uprooted consistent with high end EF1 and low end EF2 damage. The
tornado continued to the Northeast crossing Academic Parkway
through an apartment complex where EF0 to low end EF1 damage was
noted to the trees and buildings in the area. The tornado then
crossed Interstate 75 at approximately 3:34PM per numerous cell
phone video of the tornado. Trees were downed on the southbound
lane of I75. As the tornado approached Hwy 42, there were several
uprooted trees on the back of an industrial building and a few
trees snapped in the front. The tornado crossed Hwy 42 and began
to weaken with only minor tree damage noted in and around a large
industrial building. The tornado lifted as it crossed Distribution
Drive where small branches and leaf debris was noted. Both radar
and ground truth confirm that the tornado had significantly
weakened as it reached Distribution Drive. The tornado was very
short lived and only on the ground for 1.8 miles and 5 minutes,
but demonstrated how quickly a strong tornado can develop.

&&

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0.....65 to 85 mph
EF1.....86 to 110 mph
EF2.....111 to 135 mph
EF3.....136 to 165 mph
EF4.....166 to 200 mph
EF5.....>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in
NWS Storm Data.


$$
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slenker said:
It does look like it may get quite active, but nothing big or synoptically evident appears to be on the horizon. It seems like a lot of mesoscale days will be apparent though, just based on the operational GFS and Euro right now. Seems like there’s a lot of benign troughing in the future for the west in general. Again, nothing too significant though.
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I'm definitely seeing Tuesday as being the biggest threat. That cold front could be pretty powerful and will be a strong forcing mechanism that can overcome a lot of the other weaker kinematics, especially because directional sheer won't be a problem. Any tornadoes that form will likely be shrouded in rain too (due to the lower speed sheer).
 
I'm really sold on the Tuesday threat for significant severe weather. It's not the sharpest dryline we've ever seen, but it does have some oomph to it and travels a long distance in a short amount of time.

1748672028157.gif

Look at that Theta-E (potential for instability) heading into Tuesday evening. GFS is more aggressive than the Euro in the plains, but the Euro expects more instability further North.
1748672034681.png1748672610696.png

And the temperature gradient is the most drastic of all. The Euro is really trying to sell the idea of the Northern threat up to Iowa and Wisconsin. But look at that sharp 30 degree gradient in Kansas with the GFS! Wowza!
1748672669809.png1748672780996.png

The Euro is starting to think a nice little shortwave trough is possible too. The temperature gradient will cause plenty of forcing and speed sheer, so if the jet stream can add a little directional sheer to the picture we're sure to have strong rotating updrafts.
1748673171556.png1748673384918.gif

I have a feeling if CAPE ends up trending in a more plentiful direction, the SPC will ramp up the risk areas and language significantly. It's still some nasty looking convection regardless, so I expect these storms to do a lot with very little.
1748673619299.png1748673550072.png
 
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Grand Poo Bah said:
I'm really sold on the Tuesday threat for significant severe weather. It's not the sharpest dryline we've ever seen, but it does have some oomph to it and travels a long distance in a short amount of time.

View attachment 43497

Look at that Theta-E (potential for instability) heading into Tuesday evening. GFS is more aggressive than the Euro.
View attachment 43498View attachment 43499

And the temperature gradient is the most drastic of all. The Euro is really trying to sell the idea of the threat reaching further North up to Iowa and Wisconsin.
View attachment 43500View attachment 43501

The Euro is starting to think a nice little shortwave trough is possible too.
View attachment 43502View attachment 43503

I have a feeling if CAPE ends up trending in a more plentiful direction, the SPC will ramp up the risk language significantly. It's still some nasty looking convection regardless, so I expect these storms to do a lot with very little.
View attachment 43505View attachment 43504
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At this point in the year with cape this high you can honestly get storms just firing off randomly or off a shortwave in the warm sector
 
I feel like this set up is as traditional as they come. It's the type you learn about in grade school science class. An extremely violent collision of cold air with warm leads to explosive convection and tornadoes. That 30 degree temperature gradient across Kansas is wild. Residents will feel temps go from 83 degrees to 54 in the span of an hour. That almost always brings bad news with it, and it seems rare to see this type of interaction so far south this time of year, with so much moisture available.

We're certainly going to see plenty of ominous green supercells at the very least, and the satellite imagery will be striking as the two fronts collide.
 
Just checked the 00z gfs run, and I 100% agree with you. Kind of odd location, but that dryline is starting to sharpen up, and shear vectors, while not perfectly angled like you get in an OK setup, are still pretty solid. The LLJ is quite powerful as well around the 18z mark. I clocked the 500mb jet translation speed at around 38 knots, which isn't as high end like we see in April setups, is still quick enough to produce violent tornados.
Grand Poo Bah said:
I feel like this set up is as traditional as they come. It's the type you learn about in grade school science class. An extremely violent collision of cold air with warm leads to explosive convection and tornadoes. That 30 degree temperature gradient across Kansas is wild. Residents will feel temps go from 83 degrees to 54 in the span of an hour. That almost always brings bad news with it, and it seems rare to see this type of interaction so far south this time of year, with so much moisture available.

We're certainly going to see plenty of ominous green supercells at the very least, and the satellite imagery will be striking as the two fronts collide.
Click to expand...
 
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