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Severe Weather 2025

Kds86z said:
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any official sounding from this cell when it was failing?

also would be nice for soundings to show what exact temperature / dew points are on 850 , 700 , 500 mb like how it shows for surface, trying to measure it by hand can result of one of 2 issues

1: off by 1c to 3c
2:you have to slowly restart each calculation because each sounding pages or program has the spot in different spots thus the first way you did it is useless and you have to restart all over again....
 
Some rotation on the supercell in southern Oklahoma which is a little surprising given the lack of low level shear in the area. It does looks like it’s right in the outflow boundary from this mornings storms so maybe giving it a little extra spin in a very juiced thermo environment
 

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SVA out now for MS/AR and far SW TN.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
205 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Southern Arkansas
Northern and North-Central Mississippi
Southwest Tennessee

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until
900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to further develop and intensify this
afternoon, including some initial supercells, with lines/clusters of
intensifying storms expected to evolve by late afternoon/early
evening. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are expected to be
the primary hazards.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest
of Hot Springs AR to 25 miles east southeast of Tupelo MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29030.

...Guyer
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Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
joshoctober16 said:
any official sounding from this cell when it was failing?

also would be nice for soundings to show what exact temperature / dew points are on 850 , 700 , 500 mb like how it shows for surface, trying to measure it by hand can result of one of 2 issues

1: off by 1c to 3c
2:you have to slowly restart each calculation because each sounding pages or program has the spot in different spots thus the first way you did it is useless and you have to restart all over again....
Click to expand...
The warm mid levels are what caused the meager laspe rates, which prevented the cell from maturing in time (also prevented a wide updraft) before the surface inversion formed.

The nocturnal surface inversion lifted the LFC above the effective inflow layer and then the dry air from that entrained into the storm, which eroded its cloud base and killed it.
 
jiharris0220 said:
The warm mid levels are what caused the meager laspe rates, which prevented the cell from maturing in time (also prevented a wide updraft) before the surface inversion formed.

The nocturnal surface inversion lifted the LFC above the effective inflow layer and then the dry air from that entrained into the storm, which eroded its cloud base and killed it.
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yeah uh i was asking if there was a official sounding, to see exactly how it look like in exact numbers , like the skew-t graph?
 
well never mind about isn't over 75+ in 3cape that's going to change in 40 minutes1748203911641.png
in about a hour things could now become dangerous , if a supercell forms at the right spot of the boundary.

again that is if near to what this hrrr sounding is at, as in not a big disagreement with what happens (yesterday the lapse rates went way too low and did not match with the hrrr model) and also if its the right spot of the boundary.

note also the sun is still up unlike yesterday.

K index are not over 50 this time.

once again I'm going to say for everyone in Texas near matador to watch out.
note this is for this area
1748204264975.png

SBCAPE already over 5000+
1748204311154.png
 
joshoctober16 said:
yeah uh i was asking if there was a official sounding, to see exactly how it look like in exact numbers , like the skew-t graph?
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The skew Ts shows the surface inversion around the supercell at the time the it was dying.

As you can see, the vertical profile was moist above it, so it definitely was the nocturnal surface inversion that supplied the dry air to erode the cloud base and choke off inflow.
1748205561437.png
 
Another TOR issued to the south of the first, for this inflow notch and associated circulation. Kinda surprised they're prompting warnings, these seem to be very brief, appearing in one scan and disappearing the next.
1748206636271.png1748206645006.png
 
There's a little broad rotation with the storm just NW of Saltillo, MS.
 

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OH-IOan said:
Isn’t a hybrid tornado just a landspout that transitions into a traditional tornado? What makes those more dangerous?
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Late, I know, but the main threat with hybrids is that they can reach and maintain absolutely terrifying intensities. Three of the tornadoes @joshoctober16 has identified as being hybrids reached E/F5 intensity (Plainfield, Jarrell, Elie), one has been stated as possibly having EF5 winds (Scarif) and two other candidates he didn't mention likely reached EF5 intensity as well (Matador and Greenfield).
 
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