Severe Weather 2025

[eep]

Damn I thought the canton storm was too north. Weather is stupid as hell sometimes.

 

[eep]

Looks like Leedey storm is recovering while the Watonga storm continues to look pretty potent.

 

[Jbop]

Canton storm becoming well defined

 

[AJS]

Wow, that’s becoming well defined.

 

[AJS]

Wow!

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Watonga is uncomfortably close to the path of the potentially tornadic region of the storm. One of the larger towns in that part of Oklahoma.

 

[jiharris0220]

The western most cell will not last long as I thought.

Notice the vertical profiles I’ve circled.

There’s a nocturnal surface inversion, this will cut the supercell’s life short.

 

[Tanner]

Oklahoma last year said, "I'm back!"

Oklahoma this year said, "I'm back...to disappointing you."

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Oklahoma last year said, "I'm back!"

Oklahoma this year said, "I'm back...to disappointing you."

Ironic, this being the first year I've chased in Oklahoma and NOT been disappointed.

 

[jiharris0220]

Oklahoma last year said, "I'm back!"

Oklahoma this year said, "I'm back...to disappointing you."

Surface inversions can be tricky, they occur very often, (due to the fact the surface cools faster than the atmosphere) and usually aren’t a problem for already established supercells.

This one never really had a chance to root, that and the weak forcing screwed it over.

The fact the NWS even issued a tornado watch that expires at 4:am tells me they didn’t expect things to cut off so early.

Isn’t meteorology just fun?

 

[Clancy]

Based on the lack of tornado warnings, much less tornado reports, I'm guessing Plains chasers had a heck of a letdown this evening.

 

[Kds86z]

Let’s try this again…

 

[AJS]

Based on the lack of tornado warnings, much less tornado reports, I'm guessing Plains chasers had a heck of a letdown this evening.

There was one supercell that caught the attention of several storm chasers, but thankfully it died off.

 

[Kds86z]

@MichelleH @JPWX

 

[AJS]

Wow! Two 5% tornado areas.

 

[MichelleH]

@MichelleH @JPWX

Peachy! Thanks for the heads up!

 

[JPWX]

@MichelleH @JPWX

Not surprising about the Enhanced Risk upgrade after looking at the 12z HRRR and 09z RRFS this morning. However, that 5% TOR is a bit surprising.

 

[joshoctober16]

The western most cell will not last long as I thought.

Notice the vertical profiles I’ve circled.

There’s a nocturnal surface inversion, this will cut the supercell’s life short.
View attachment 43210

well looks like my prediction failed and it was likely cause of the lapse rates not matching up with the models.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Kds86z]

well looks like my prediction failed and it was likely cause of the lapse rates not matching up with the models.