Severe Weather 2025

[Jbop]

I am super excited for this. Broyles absolutely nailed that day and am very eager to learn exactly what he saw that led to the high risk.

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Is the SPC usually more formal across the board in their approach to forecasting or can it change from forecaster to forecaster. I always looked at them as probably trying to stay as formal as possible.

 

[Kds86z]

I am super excited for this. Broyles absolutely nailed that day and am very eager to learn exactly what he saw that led to the high risk.

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Did he though? Only one ef3 in high risk. Other ef3s were in MDT. I would say his MDT verified. I guess it depends how you view high risk verification.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Did he though? Only one ef3 in high risk. Other ef3s were in MDT. I would say his MDT verified. I guess it depends how you view high risk verification.

just because we didn't get a EF4+ doesn't mean the high didn't verify

 

[Clancy]

Care to share it haha

Here you go

 

[OH-IOan]

just because we didn't get a EF4+ doesn't mean the high didn't verify

Ehh, I think it was even-even. The HIGH verified in MS and central AL tornadic activity, but a lot of the wind and hail reports were outside the HIGH zone.

 

[andyhb]

Ehh, I think it was even-even. The HIGH verified in MS and central AL tornadic activity, but a lot of the wind and hail reports were outside the HIGH zone.View attachment 41146

I don't know what you expect from a high risk verification for tornadoes (which is what the risk was for), but this is basically it when you factor in that quite a few of these were significant.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Ehh, I think it was even-even. The HIGH verified in MS and central AL tornadic activity, but a lot of the wind and hail reports were outside the HIGH zone.View attachment 41146

ngl, I thoght they was talkin abt the 4/2 high, 3/16 had a EF4 in the high being Tylertown and the second one there was also a likely vio tor, but was rated an EF3

 

[OH-IOan]

ngl, I thoght they was talkin abt the 4/2 high, 3/16 had a EF4 in the high being Tylertown and the second one there was also a likely vio tor, but was rated an EF3

Oh, I don't know why I automatically jumped to the 3/15 high. Whoops.

 

[Kds86z]

Ehh, I think it was even-even. The HIGH verified in MS and central AL tornadic activity, but a lot of the wind and hail reports were outside the HIGH zone.View attachment 41146

Wrong day.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

just because we didn't get a EF4+ doesn't mean the high didn't verify

Especially considering the EF3 was more of a ratings issue than a strength one. But that's a conversation for a different thread.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Here you go

Didn't know he had a YouTube channel. I'm surprised it doesn't have more subscribers given how well-known he is in the weather community. It would seem he also chases, which I didn't know, either although I guess that shouldn't surprise me.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

CIPS and CSU models are increasing in confidence on a multi day severe weather outbreak next week, but they definitely vary quite a lot on which areas will be impacted the worst.

Day 6


Day 7

Day 8

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

CIPS and CSU models are increasing in confidence on a multi day severe weather outbreak next week, but they definitely vary quite a lot on which areas will be impacted the worst.

Day 6
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Day 7
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Day 8
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holy, multi-day event for Ohio? doesn't happen all that often

 

[joshoctober16]

I don't know much in the weather science field, but I can start the thread for everyone if you all want. @Tennie @Grand Poo Bah @joshoctober16

and let me know when you post it , i already have a few things to post for this future thread

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

GFS continuing to get more bullish. Now showing plenty of isolated convection on simulated reflectivity from the the 14th to the 19th. Look at those wind directions! Talk about chaotic. Definitely shouldn't be taking the animations this far out, but since it's one big nonstop system it seemed relevant to take it all the way to the end.



SO. MUCH. MOISTURE.

 

[Ozonelayer]

GFS continuing to get more bullish. Now showing plenty of isolated convection on simulated reflectivity from the the 14th to the 19th. Look at those wind directions! Talk about chaotic. Definitely shouldn't be taking the animations this far out, but since it's one big nonstop system it seemed relevant to take it all the way to the end.

View attachment 41153

SO. MUCH. MOISTURE.

View attachment 41157

CAPE helps refine the picture a little bit. Looks like there might even be enough in SD and maybe ND to start this whole sequence off with a bang.

View attachment 41154

Crazy amounts of widespread shear. Is it possible the trough doesn't matter as much because of the stationary low in the Southeast is bringing up plenty of moisture on its own? Or am I totally missing the purpose/importance of the troughs? I still don't full understand that aspect.

View attachment 41155

Supercell composite. It's crazy how many areas could get hit four or five times in a row.

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Helicity is just absurd. That was the main ingredient missing from the deep south until now as well.

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Who ordered mid-May madness? Dear lord the weather has no mercy on my sleep schedule.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Who ordered mid-May madness? Dear lord the weather has no mercy on my sleep schedule.

tbf, wasn't mid may when stuff twas gonna go wild?

 

[Ozonelayer]

tbf, wasn't mid may when stuff twas gonna go wild?

Fair enough, I just was happy that after the sequence of mid March to early April was at least somewhat quiet, and was hoping that it would stay that way.

 

[ColdFront]

Did he though? Only one ef3 in high risk. Other ef3s were in MDT. I would say his MDT verified. I guess it depends how you view high risk verification.

In my opinion, yes it did.

 

[ColdFront]

Here you go

Oh man, that had to hurt.