Severe Weather 2025

[TornadoFan]

 

[TornadoFan]

About to undergo a merger.

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

Not even under tornado risk.... this combined with the misses of the last few days? Is model accuracy, SPC forecast accuracy off or is the weather just being unpredictable.

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

Mesoscale Discussion 0637
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Southwest into Central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204...205...

Valid 012248Z - 020015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204, 205 continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered slow-moving severe thunderstorms will continue into the early-evening hours. Hail is the primary concern.

DISCUSSION...Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms continue within a very high-instability air mass from the international border over southeast Terrell County to Leon County. Wind profiles favor storm splits and latest radar data supports this with several left-movers advancing north of the watch at times. Even so, the primary concern this evening will be for the east-west corridor to gradually sag south as the dominant updrafts should tend to drift more southerly. MRMS data suggests large, to very large hail is common with this activity.

..Darrow.. 05/01/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

 

[Jbop]

Not even under tornado risk.... this combined with the misses of the last few days? Is model accuracy, SPC forecast accuracy off or is the weather just being unpredictable.

It's in a 2% marginal. It's technically under a tornado risk

 

[Kds86z]

It's in a 2% marginal. It's technically under a tornado risk

They added that after the tornado @Jbop . Before that it was 0%…

 

[Jbop]

They added that after the tornado @Jbop . Before that it was 0%…

I replied to "Not even under a tornado risk", not when the tornado risk was applied.

 

[jiharris0220]

Extremely high cape/3km cape + veered PBL wind profile + high LLLR + Srf vorticity + south west mover supercell = tornadoes.

 

[jiharris0220]

Also, this photo is just another one to the collection of movie poster worthy tornado shots this year.

 

[joshoctober16]

Kind of like Jarrell day eh? Deviant motion, moving south, boundary, extreme cape..

ya i think it was a hybrid , its in the hybrid clump group zone.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[AJS]

Genuinely curious to see how the rest of May plays out.

 

[Ozonelayer]

My powers back and my waters running again! I'm back!

 

[Kds86z]

That first tornado damaged 5 homes and injured one fyi

 

[JBishopwx]

No tornadoes here (thankfully), but the Skycam Network has been pretty busy with summer storms: This one not too far from @JPWX

 

[JBishopwx]

Wind-driven enhanced risk for today (Friday)

 

[Kds86z]

Wind-driven enhanced risk for today (Friday)View attachment 40811View attachment 40810

Big…

 

[Kds86z]

Austin weather: Tornado in Burnet County destroys 1 home, injures 1 person

A tornado was confirmed on the ground in Burnet County on May 1.

www.fox7austin.com

Wow destroyed a house. Unfortunately injured a driver also.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]