• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2025

Here's my findings for the state of MS and severe weather risks. Please note that this is just how many days per month that the state of Mississippi has been under some sort of categorical risk from SPC from 2000 thru 2024. I'll add 2025 once the year has ended and get the percentages (plus more) once I get all this in a spreadsheet. The most surprising aspect from all this is what month you think isn't the highest one for the state. Got all this from the SPC event page.

1. May-216 total
2. June-190 total
3. April-187 total
4. July-176 total
5. March-138 total
6. August-94 total
7. February-80 total
8. October-56 total
9. January-65 total
10. December-68 total
11. November-67 total
12. September-45 total
 
A separate thread may be needed for Sunday. Everything about that setup is saying "the synoptics are there, now wait for the instability/moisture situation to catch up". Fast moving/potent negative tilt shortwave, deepening surface low, strong LLJ all day, good boundary orientation for at least semi-discrete storms, etc.

If enough destabilization can occur ahead of that boundary (also with Saturday overnight convection in mind), it could be a pretty potent event.
 
AJS said:
Oklahoma is always full of surprises.
Click to expand...
As someone who’s only been following the weather very recently compared to a lot of others on this forum, I feel like a very good portion of the conditional days on the Plains I’ve experienced performed towards their ceilings, while the days that were supposed to be “big” typically tended to underperform (talking more about 2024 for this point, this year has been different) Is that recency bias on my part, or has there been an anomalous amount of days that were accompanied by 5% tornado risks going bananas?
 
slenker said:
As someone who’s only been following the weather very recently compared to a lot of others on this forum, I feel like a very good portion of the conditional days on the Plains I’ve experienced performed towards their ceilings, while the days that were supposed to be “big” typically tended to underperform (talking more about 2024 for this point, this year has been different) Is that recency bias on my part, or has there been an anomalous amount of days that were accompanied by 5% tornado risks going bananas?
Click to expand...
This is a good observation. That was absolutely the trend of 2024. Plus most of the big storms for Oklahoma came after dark. That was probably the most active year for the plains since 2019.

While colloquially known as tornado alley, plains set ups are notoriously finicky. Sometimes the absolute smallest mesoscale details over that way can be the difference between a high end event or a clear sky bu$t. There’s an excellent paper on 5/3/99 that Rich Thompson & Roger Edwards (SPC) authored on just how difficult it was to forecast that event. There were two dry lines, they didn’t know if the cap would erode due to cloud cover, there were questions around convergence on the dryline. The Bridge Creek/Moore F5, AKA Storm A, actually formed from a horizontal convective roll, which is about as mesoscale as you can get.

I believe it’s a little recency bias, but 2024 could have easily been the higher potential days verifying with something like a 4/26/24 performing as expected. It’s just because the plains are so damn finicky. I do think Oklahoma is due for a 5/24/11, 5/3/99, 4/27/91 caliber outbreak though.
 
I think these echoes would have been the supercells that several consecutive HRRR runs wanted to develop across southeast WI/northeast IL this evening, except that another round of storms fired in the mid-afternoon (around 20-21Z), became severe-warned and sped out over Lake Michigan. The model had not picked up on the occurrence of these, and I think they sapped the instability.

MKX_0017.png
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I think these echoes would have been the supercells that several consecutive HRRR runs wanted to develop across southeast WI/northeast IL this evening, except that another round of storms fired in the mid-afternoon (around 20-21Z), became severe-warned and sped out over Lake Michigan. The model had not picked up on the occurrence of these, and I think they sapped the instability.

View attachment 39920
Click to expand...
What’s the mood like over on StormTrack for the rest of the season?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top