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Severe Weather 2025

I know we have slight risks for today and through the weekend, but CIPS is still homing in on a wide swath of the CONUS for increased severe probabilities as we round out April. Below are the 6-8 day, 9-11, and 12-14 day outlooks for at least 1 severe weather report.
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It remains to be seen how this all evolves out, but I have seen some 500mb models show a favorable setup for waves to move through the Plains region. We'll see what happens and how the models play out. Even if we do not get ski jump or "mega troughs" out of the next few weeks, as evidenced last night, you don't need one to have a signficant tornado.
 
Sharpy said:
I know we have slight risks for today and through the weekend, but CIPS is still homing in on a wide swath of the CONUS for increased severe probabilities as we round out April. Below are the 6-8 day, 9-11, and 12-14 day outlooks for at least 1 severe weather report.
View attachment 39902
View attachment 39903
View attachment 39904

It remains to be seen how this all evolves out, but I have seen some 500mb models show a favorable setup for waves to move through the Plains region. We'll see what happens and how the models play out. Even if we do not get ski jump or "mega troughs" out of the next few weeks, as evidenced last night, you don't need one to have a signficant tornado.
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*Ain't No Love in Oklahoma intensifies*
 
talkweather.com

Severe WX - Severe threat 3/30-3/31

Will that have an effect on sundays threat is key question , what’s your thoughts …. No convection. Now for Saturday much , does that escalate the threat for Sunday ? I would think that it definitely raises the ceiling some yes.
talkweather.com talkweather.com

I wanted to say this again because I saw a few people with the NE storms say "I wasn't expecting that". Do not be surprised when we see more people in more places say this more often. The earth is going to continue to do things it has not done before, things that people (even METS) thought were impossible, and/or things that catch people (all over) off guard, in places that people do not expect when they are not expected. We have seen this in recent years (the FIRST Fire Tornado Warning in 2020 in CALIFORNIA), the FIRST Hurricane Warning in Atlanta last year) and will increasingly continue to do so in the coming years. April, May, and June of this year are not excluded, don't rule anything out. The times for writing things off or ruling something out (for whatever reason) are OVER. We are going to see more people (again, including METS) caught off guard. Do not think anything is impossible for any reason. All of the biases and "rules" that people have about the weather (and natural disasters in general) should be tossed out.

I say all of this to say: When it comes to the weather/natural disasters and the earth in general, expect the unexpected/impossible. Anomalies related to the weather/natural disasters will increasingly become more common.

Just become prepared, and STAY that way.
 
KevinH said:
I wanted to say this again because I saw a few people with the NE storms say "I wasn't expecting that". Do not be surprised when we see more people in more places say this more often. The earth is going to continue to do things it has not done before, things that people (even METS) thought were impossible, and/or things that catch people (all over) off guard, in places that people do not expect when they are not expected. We have seen this in recent years (the FIRST Fire Tornado Warning in 2020 in CALIFORNIA), the FIRST Hurricane Warning in Atlanta last year) and will increasingly continue to do so in the coming years. April, May, and June of this year are not excluded, don't rule anything out. The times for writing things off or ruling something out (for whatever reason) are OVER. We are going to see more people (again, including METS) caught off guard. Do not think anything is impossible for any reason. All of the biases and "rules" that people have about the weather (and natural disasters in general) should be tossed out.
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Do you care to elaborate on what factors are leading you to believe this because I’ve seen you post it quite a bit lately? Is this some kind of climate change or “The Day After Tomorrow” scenario you are putting forward?
Because I just think you’re reading too much into the fire tornado warning and hurricane warning.

Last night wasn’t surprising at all, we get sneaky days like that in the plains all the time. The set ups are always so mercurial that getting two big supercells like last night is pretty common each spring.

If I see a 5 or 6 discrete supercells putting down violent, long tracked tornados in Alaska at the same time then maybe you can make that point.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
HRRR has a nice little pocket of higher EHI in southern Wisconsin coincident with the surface low passage this afternoon; varies from run to run on whether it actually does anything with it.
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It seems fairly consistent with this, with at least some scattered convection this evening in an area of pretty elevated STP- let me know if im misreading this though... RRFS as well has some cells firing (some robust) but thats to be expected of the RRFS
 
KevinH said:
talkweather.com

Severe WX - Severe threat 3/30-3/31

Will that have an effect on sundays threat is key question , what’s your thoughts …. No convection. Now for Saturday much , does that escalate the threat for Sunday ? I would think that it definitely raises the ceiling some yes.
talkweather.com talkweather.com

I wanted to say this again because I saw a few people with the NE storms say "I wasn't expecting that". Do not be surprised when we see more people in more places say this more often. The earth is going to continue to do things it has not done before, things that people (even METS) thought were impossible, and/or things that catch people (all over) off guard, in places that people do not expect when they are not expected. We have seen this in recent years (the FIRST Fire Tornado Warning in 2020 in CALIFORNIA), the FIRST Hurricane Warning in Atlanta last year) and will increasingly continue to do so in the coming years. April, May, and June of this year are not excluded, don't rule anything out. The times for writing things off or ruling something out (for whatever reason) are OVER. We are going to see more people (again, including METS) caught off guard. Do not think anything is impossible for any reason. All of the biases and "rules" that people have about the weather (and natural disasters in general) should be tossed out.

I say all of this to say: When it comes to the weather/natural disasters and the earth in general, expect the unexpected/impossible. Anomalies related to the weather/natural disasters will increasingly become more common.

Just become prepared, and STAY that way.
Click to expand...
1744999992085.gif
 
KevinH said:
talkweather.com

Severe WX - Severe threat 3/30-3/31

Will that have an effect on sundays threat is key question , what’s your thoughts …. No convection. Now for Saturday much , does that escalate the threat for Sunday ? I would think that it definitely raises the ceiling some yes.
talkweather.com talkweather.com

I wanted to say this again because I saw a few people with the NE storms say "I wasn't expecting that". Do not be surprised when we see more people in more places say this more often. The earth is going to continue to do things it has not done before, things that people (even METS) thought were impossible, and/or things that catch people (all over) off guard, in places that people do not expect when they are not expected. We have seen this in recent years (the FIRST Fire Tornado Warning in 2020 in CALIFORNIA), the FIRST Hurricane Warning in Atlanta last year) and will increasingly continue to do so in the coming years. April, May, and June of this year are not excluded, don't rule anything out. The times for writing things off or ruling something out (for whatever reason) are OVER. We are going to see more people (again, including METS) caught off guard. Do not think anything is impossible for any reason. All of the biases and "rules" that people have about the weather (and natural disasters in general) should be tossed out.

I say all of this to say: When it comes to the weather/natural disasters and the earth in general, expect the unexpected/impossible. Anomalies related to the weather/natural disasters will increasingly become more common.

Just become prepared, and STAY that way.
Click to expand...
Saying this before or after every severe weather event does more harm than help. It's always been said to pay attention to the weather when a severe weather outlook is issed for anyone's area. To imply that something based off of "biases" and "rules should be tossed out" is basically saying to dismiss scientific methods.
 
Looks like persistent highs in the NW Atlantic will help keep more substantial severe threats away from the core of the Southeast for the next little bit, which I will absolutely take without complaint. Plains and Mid-South look to be quite active through the end of the month, however. Very active thus far this season, on the upper end of tornado reports YTD, but we've had years start off super active and then drop off through the summer into the fall, so curious about how we will end up by the end of the year.
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Clancy said:
Looks like persistent highs in the NW Atlantic will help keep more substantial severe threats away from the core of the Southeast for the next little bit, which I will absolutely take without complaint. Plains and Mid-South look to be quite active through the end of the month, however. Very active thus far this season, on the upper end of tornado reports YTD, but we've had years start off super active and then drop off through the summer into the fall, so curious about how we will end up by the end of the year.
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Agreed. I may eat crow, but I feel like we are switching out of Dixie Proper (AL/GA) to the west for the remaining of the season. I still expect ARKLAMISS to be in play, but not really Bama or GA
 
ColdFront said:
Agreed. I may eat crow, but I feel like we are switching out of Dixie Proper (AL/GA) to the west for the remaining of the season. I still expect ARKLAMISS to be in play, but not really Bama or GA
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Knocking aggressively, violently even, on wood here.
 
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