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Severe Weather 2025

Bulkshear said:
I agree, I already made a thread for Wednesday’s event. We definitely need to get through Sunday first, however we are going to have to pivot fast.
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Of COURSE you have LOL

Very much warranted though
So It Begins Helms Deep GIF
 
My best practice, which I've already told my EMA director about next week's threat (she wasn't happy and neither am I), is we're gonna get through this weekend's threat first and then start talking about that other threat. I had already warned my director about my concern about April based on what I've been seeing pattern wise.
 
JPWX said:
My best practice, which I've already told my EMA director about next week's threat (she wasn't happy and neither am I), is we're gonna get through this weekend's threat first and then start talking about that other threat. I had already warned my director about my concern about April based on what I've been seeing pattern wise.
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Yeah we hardly got started good yet. , unfortunately
 
Matt Grantham said:
We're entering a period of a split/incoherent MJO. Approximately 3 to 4 weeks after these split MJO signatures in March 1974, January 2008, and early April 2011, all hell broke loose. The timing and placement of the next MJO consolidation/amplification will have major implications on the outlook for April. Right now there is nothing evident. Without a clear signal, I'm expecting low predictability of the upper-air pattern within the 384 hour model window for the next week or two. The extended ECMWF MJO forecast on the phase diagram is quite similar to the March/April 2011 progression. So we'll keep an eye on that.


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Interestingly, the "incoherent signal" gave us the Early January 2008 tornado outbreak and was coming out of the IA/WI outbreak in '11.
 
TOR in SE TX. Marginal risk out there today.
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1146 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

TXC351-281715-
/O.CON.KLCH.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250328T1715Z/
Newton TX-
1146 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
NEWTON COUNTY...

At 1146 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Burkeville, moving north at 75 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northern Newton County, including the following locations...
Wiergate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3084 9365 3084 9376 3104 9385 3104 9357
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 192DEG 65KT 3100 9366

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Slaughter


======================================================================

169
WFUS54 KLCH 281638
TORLCH
TXC351-281715-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0008.250328T1638Z-250328T1715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1138 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northern Newton County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1215 PM CDT.

* At 1138 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located over Newton, moving north at 75 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Stringtown and Burkeville around 1145 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Wiergate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 9367 3079 9374 3104 9385 3104 9357
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 192DEG 65KT 3084 9370

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Slaughter
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1743180811234.png
 
andyhb said:
So um, the 12z Euro has a widespread severe event on 4/2-3, then reloads over the S Plains/Arklatex on 4/4-6 with another multiple day event. Good lord.

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Wait..

Two different systems back to back? How are outbreak sequences defined? Does the same storm have to produce near constant activity, or could separate systems (close together) also be considered a sequence?
 
KevinH said:
Wait..

Two different systems back to back? How are outbreak sequences defined? Does the same storm have to produce near constant activity, or could separate systems (close together) also be considered a sequence?
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By this definition, this would be considered a sequence. A tornado outbreak sequence, or tornado outbreak day sequence, sometimes referred to as an extended tornado outbreak, is a period of continuous or nearly continuous high tornado activity consisting of a series of tornado outbreaks over multiple days with no or very few days lacking tornado outbreaks.
 
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JPWX said:
By this definition, this would be considered a sequence. A tornado outbreak sequence, or tornado outbreak day sequence, sometimes referred to as an extended tornado outbreak, is a period of continuous or nearly continuous high tornado activity consisting of a series of tornado outbreaks over multiple days with no or very few days lacking tornado outbreaks.
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Ok cool… says NOTHING about it being different systems. I guess THAT part is just for this forum lol
 
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