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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Erin

Severe Weather 2025

GEFS with a fairly strong signal at the end of the month. It's been there for a little while now. Still, a lot of disagreement on synoptic evolution, so will have to see how it shakes out on models in the coming days.
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Debated whether or not to post this in here but looks like Tim Marshall got called out by a homeowner for making up a story about her unfinished home that was destroyed by last weekends tornado outbreak. Tim's post has gone viral with 1700 shares on Facebook, and he just recently turned off comments on his page.

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Clancy said:
GEFS with a fairly strong signal at the end of the month. It's been there for a little while now. Still, a lot of disagreement on synoptic evolution, so will have to see how it shakes out on models in the coming days.
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Looks like i’m gonna definitely have to chase if this develops into something! First chase of 2025 incoming.
 
HRRR certainly suggests the possibility for a not insignificant threat today over MS and TN, perhaps into parts of NW AL late this afternoon as diurnal heating maximizes. A few nasty surprises in the cards for anyone in the way of storms that can get themselves established along a rapidly advancing and narrow band of moisture. All-hazards risk; tornado threat is lower than wind and hail but wouldn't be surprised to see a localized area of heightened tornadic activity in some places where conditions are most favorable. Large hail will be a risk, so put those cars in garages, and stay safe out there @JPWX
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Clancy said:
HRRR certainly suggests the possibility for a not insignificant threat today over MS and TN, perhaps into parts of NW AL late this afternoon as diurnal heating maximizes. A few nasty surprises in the cards for anyone in the way of storms that can get themselves established along a rapidly advancing and narrow band of moisture. All-hazards risk; tornado threat is lower than wind and hail but wouldn't be surprised to see a localized area of heightened tornadic activity in some places where conditions are most favorable. Large hail will be a risk, so put those cars in garages, and stay safe out there @JPWX
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If you don’t mind me asking, how is next weekend’s threat looking as of right now?
 
Clancy said:
HRRR certainly suggests the possibility for a not insignificant threat today over MS and TN, perhaps into parts of NW AL late this afternoon as diurnal heating maximizes. A few nasty surprises in the cards for anyone in the way of storms that can get themselves established along a rapidly advancing and narrow band of moisture. All-hazards risk; tornado threat is lower than wind and hail but wouldn't be surprised to see a localized area of heightened tornadic activity in some places where conditions are most favorable. Large hail will be a risk, so put those cars in garages, and stay safe out there @JPWX
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@UncleJuJu98
 
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