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Severe Weather 2025

This is probably going to be difficult to interpret and understand, but I'm going to post what I have been working on with Fred for the last 20 years and in particular after 2011. I began issuing skillful internal forecasts in 2021 using the MJO, but the code had not yet been cracked on large-scale outbreaks for the Deep South. Ironically, this all became much clearer in the last few months leading up to the current March 14-16 expected outbreak. It's truly freaky to see this playing out.

The current MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) evolution matches that of April 3, 1974, February 5, 2008 (Super Tuesday), and April 27, 2011. What is not included in this presentation is the Trans-Nino Index, which has an extremely positive value right now that is correlated to seasons with major tornado outbreaks. Not all La Ninas are created equal. Some don't have a positive TNI value, but the 2025 La Nina is special.

With all of this information in hand, I took the risk of sending this outlook from February 26 to our staff on March 2, highlighting the window of March 14-20 as the most likely time frame for a large-scale tornado outbreak. Additionally, we'll be watching for the next MJO wave in about 40 days. :oops:

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Matt Grantham said:
This is probably going to be difficult to interpret and understand, but I'm going to post what I have been working on with Fred for the last 20 years and in particular after 2011. I began successfully internal forecasts in 2021 using the MJO, but the code had not yet been cracked on large-scale outbreaks for the Deep South. Ironically, this all became much clearer in the last few months leading up to the current March 14-16 expected outbreak. It's truly freaky to see this playing out.

The current MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) evolution matches that of April 3, 1974, February 5, 2008 (Super Tuesday), and April 27, 2011. What is not included in this presentation is the Trans-Nino Index, which has an extremely positive value right now that is correlated to seasons with major tornado outbreaks. Not all La Ninas are created equal. Some don't have a positive TNI value, but the 2025 La Nina is special.

With all of this information in hand, I took the risk of sending this outlook from February 26 to our staff on March 2, highlighting the window of March 14-20 as the most likely time frame for a large-scale tornado outbreak. Additionally, we'll be watching for the next MJO wave in about 40 days. :oops:

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Wow wow. Really amazing stuff, truly unbelievable how solid and consistently correlational these observations are. Super appreciate you posting them here, Matt!
 
Blountwolf said:
@Matt Grantham - Spectacular work. I knew years ago you were going to do amazing things in weather, but this is just outstanding.
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Agreed!

Who all from here have made a career out of weather? Matt, Daniel Lamb, Fred. Who else?
 
DetectiveWX said:
I can't seem to access the NOAA TNI page; just gets me the error page. Is there another way to access it? Just asking
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The research papers use a 3 or 5 month average I believe. Anything above +0.5 is considered positive. Anything above +1 is very significant. We hit a real-time value of +2.5 a couple weeks ago which is an extreme value. The split MJO signature in the presentation I shared, promotes +TNI development. The real-time TNI is what Fred and I use because the averaged data lags. You can calculate the real-time TNI on you own. Nino 1+2 - Nino 4.


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