Severe Weather 2025

[ColdFront]

Your political threads have been undeleted. I will not be read-only mode for a while since I seem to usually throw "hissy fits." You know, even when I was in the hospital a few weeks ago, I was still keeping an eye on this forum, but hey, if you think you can do a better job chief, then have at it.

Look, I was harsh and I apologize for some of the language I used. I can imagine being a moderator is very thankless, which is why I wouldn’t want to be one. I think emotions are running high, especially when politics get involved, but coming in and dressing everyone down like they were kids in a classroom wasn’t helpful either. We are all adults, some very opinionated, and sometimes that shows itself here. So I agree, let’s move on to what the discussion topic is for.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Can see her thinking here, ‘this is a weather forum for one . this topic s discuss severe weather , which more than likely going be a very hyper spring season….perhaps we may need start another topic ….

 

[Sawmaster]

Amen! There's a section for Politics here and that's where that subject belongs. Participate there if you want, but everything else here is for Weather only and I'm glad that it's being kept this way.

 

[Sawmaster]

I really don’t care boss. We are adults here, not children in a classroom.

Adults follow rules and accept the responsibility for whatever arises because of their actions. If you don't like the rules here you are free to leave, but nobody is free to break the rules set by the owners and operators of this board. It's their 'house' and we are all just 'guests' in it.

 

[KevinH]

Good lord Michelle, take a freaking chill pill and stop being so da** hysterical.

People posted their opinions, it’s a message board. Did they break a few rules? Yeah. Throwing a hissy fit like you usually do instead of just deleting the posts and reiterating what the rules clearly are is just going to drive people from this site. We don’t need a moderator getting “livid” and showing their *** when a few rules are broken, and for good reasons I might add.

It’s a bad look for you and you know it. You’re acting like a child and it’s just going to drive posters off this site to other forums.

Sooooo @ColdFront

You must be new to the internet, so let me teach you something so please take notes. When you are in a social media setting whether it is a group on Facebook, or a forum such as this, most people should understand that being disrespectful to people is not allowed. This is even more so the case when that person has the ability to REMOVE you from the forum

Like @MichelleH said, if you don’t like it, you can leave like an adult would.

 

[KevinH]

I really don’t care boss. We are adults here, not children in a classroom.

That’s what you SAY, but your actions say otherwise

 

[Tanner]

Here's Trey's forecast for this year's twister season



ENSO: weakish La Nina probably transitioning into a neutral phase
EML source regions: moderate drought that could get severe
Gulf sea temps: warm

Best analogues
1967
1996
2006
Others:
1984
1989
2018

Therefore...
March: Average, possibly above-average
Focused on the Southeast

April: Average or near average, possibly slowing toward month's end - lots of conflicts in the analogue and models
Focused on the east-central plains, the Midwest, and the Mid-South

May:
Below-average and very quiet in the Plains
Exception is Texas will probably have a decent chance of tornadoes

June:
Average
No clear hotspots, except maybe the southern High (western) Plains and central Plains/Midwest (i.e. Nebraska, Iowa)

Overall below-average
Focus of activity may be shifted further east into the area from Iowa and far eastern Nebraska to Tennessee with some throughout the season in Texas (which seems to be a trend in most analogue years)

Seeing 2018 as an analog…

Yuck.

 

[Fred Gossage]

It's already been addressed. Those of you who are continuing it are being just as disruptive. (Referring to the previous drama, not your post Tanner. We were typing at the same time.)

 

[KevinH]

It's already been addressed. Those of you are continuing it are being just as disruptive.

Sorry. I was catching up from my email notifications. I’m done

 

[Aaron Rider]

Seeing 2018 as an analog…

Yuck.

In fairness, he doesn't think 2018 is one of the better analogs. 1967 and 2006 are better.

Interestingly, most predictions for this year do seem to indicate March, at least, could be VERY interesting.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

In fairness, he doesn't think 2018 is one of the better analogs. 1967 and 2006 are better.

Interestingly, most predictions for this year do seem to indicate March, at least, could be VERY interesting.

Yes, 2018 was awful as a chaser. In fact, as you'll see, I only went on one "chase" the entire year and it was very local (within an hour of home) and in October, of all months (actually on my parents' anniversary, which is the 9th). I probably could have chased the December 1 outbreak in Illinois (which ended up being one of the better events of the year) but by that point I had given up.

Although for hurricane chasers it was rather exceptional given that it featured Michael, the only U.S. Cat. 5 landfall since Andrew.

 

[JPWX]

I love storms.

I love hurricanes, sunshine, rainbows, and snow

 

[NorthGaWeather]

It's already been addressed. Those of you who are continuing it are being just as disruptive. (Referring to the previous drama, not your post Tanner. We were typing at the same time.)

Agreed but I just want to say one thing. What happened earlier was a minor family squabble. You folks should’ve been here in the mid-2000s for the college football (Alabama/Auburn), political, and tv weather wars (that spilled over onto the board) arguments. Those were all-timers that deserve to be in archive history. While they were very entertaining, I thank Michelle for keeping the peace like she does.

Back to the weather and longwave trough drama.

 

[Austin Dawg]

What did I miss? Let me know when ya'll get back talking about the weather.

 

[Mike S]

Suggestion - since some may not care to participate in the political thread, start a thread dedicated to the NWS cuts. Just keep it in the off topic subforum. I'll even pin a pointer in this forum for those who want to participate.

The subject shall remain off limits in this forum.

 

[KevinH]

Not really outside of the snow in January and February. I did do a spreadsheet on Monroe County tornadoes vs. years with snow and years with no snow. To be honest, I never knew there was a snow vs. tornado relation until I did this spreadsheet. I got curious to see if there was a linkage and indeed there seems to be. This is why looking at analog and past weather events is SO IMPORTANT!

@Fred Gossage would be interested to hear your thoughts on a snow/tornado correlation sir.

 

[TH2002]

TW really is a family. Reading the previous two pages felt exactly like witnessing our yearly Thanksgiving family fight, but nine months earlier.

That warms my heart.

 

[MichelleH]

Good morning. Now that I've had a chance to think about it...I've been here since 2002. Were some of you alive then? Anyway, I've been here a long time and I've always loved this forum, and you know what? I'm not going anywhere. Especially with the possibilities of a very active spring.

 

[Clancy]

Good morning. Now that I've had a chance to think about it...I've been here since 2002. Were some of you alive then? Anyway, I've been here a long time and I've always loved this forum, and you know what? I'm not going anywhere. Especially with the possibilities of a very active spring.

I'm here for the long haul!

 

[JPWX]

Good morning. Now that I've had a chance to think about it...I've been here since 2002. Were some of you alive then? Anyway, I've been here a long time and I've always loved this forum, and you know what? I'm not going anywhere. Especially with the possibilities of a very active spring.

I too will stay