Severe Weather 2025

[warneagle]

If people don't want things to get political, I'm sorry, but this is going to directly affect every single weather thread in here. It is completely and utterly unconscionable.

Yeah I’ve had to bite my tongue as well but I’m really angry about all of this as you might imagine. Thankfully I’ve been reassured that my job is safe but knowing that hundreds of people who have dedicated their lives to keeping people safe are being fired for literally no good reason has made me really really mad.

 

[KevinH]

Expect more - their plan is to dismantle NOAA entirely.

"The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) should be dismantled and many of its functions eliminated, sent to other agencies, privatized, or placed under the control of states and territories"

Page 664 (697 in the PDF).

https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf

I guess this is part of their New World Order…

 

[andyhb]

I apologize for apparently setting off a firestorm. It was not my intention.

NOAA, NWS, SPC, and everyone will still do their best. I have no doubt of that.

The fact is though with every advancement we achieve in forecasting, new warning/watch, etc. it all comes down to the actual person to heed the warning and take proper precautions. You will never have a perfect warning system to warn everyone.

Nah, I'll take credit for it, and I'm not apologizing.

 

[lake.effect]

There are several fringe (but quite persistent) theories that NOAA is a front organization for other things...much more secretive things.
And I have to say there's might be a whiff of truth in there. NOAA is involved in some strange stuff when you dig down the rabbit hole.

 

[Jason Mills]

There’s nothing political about it. It’s not Republican/Democrat, it’s just plain despicable. Not only is this going to have immediate short term and medium term human and economic impacts, but I’m concerned that the “brain drain” will negatively affect the profession for decades.

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

There are several fringe (but quite persistent) theories that NOAA is a front organization for other things...much more secretive things.
And I have to say there's might be a whiff of truth in there. NOAA is involved in some strange stuff when you dig down the rabbit hole.

Oh yeah, was your research on some geocities site run by a schizophrenic qanon soft brain

 

[lake.effect]

Oh yeah, was your research on some geocities site run by a schizophrenic qanon soft brain

No, but I acknowledge those theories exists.
Don't know if they're true but the truth is often far, far stranger and deeper than most people are willing to believe.

You don't know who's really behind the scenes. Nobody does.

 

[Tanner]

Origins aside, should this even be seen political? Its black and white - an objectively bad decision. Cutting employees from an already understaffed/underfunded organization right as we enter peak severe weather season only has negative effects, and its on pretty much the entire population, who relies on the NWS (whether they know it or not). This puts people's lives at risk. It needs talking about.

It’s not politics when it effects your own backyard, your friends, and everyone else in America. Talk about shooting in the dark.

 

[Jason Mills]

Of course it's political, one political party is doing it.

My comment was perhaps poorly worded. It IS political and I’m not trying to reprieve the responsible groups of their responsibility. My point is, this is a massive problem that transcends political boundaries. This is a human problem.

 

[Blountwolf]

We really should move this discussion out of this thread over to the politics side of things.

 

[Aaron Rider]

Here's Trey's forecast for this year's twister season



ENSO: weakish La Nina probably transitioning into a neutral phase
EML source regions: moderate drought that could get severe
Gulf sea temps: warm

Best analogues
1967
1996
2006
Others:
1984
1989
2018

Therefore...
March: Average, possibly above-average
Focused on the Southeast

April: Average or near average, possibly slowing toward month's end - lots of conflicts in the analogue and models
Focused on the east-central plains, the Midwest, and the Mid-South

May:
Below-average and very quiet in the Plains
Exception is Texas will probably have a decent chance of tornadoes

June:
Average
No clear hotspots, except maybe the southern High (western) Plains and central Plains/Midwest (i.e. Nebraska, Iowa)

Overall below-average
Focus of activity may be shifted further east into the area from Iowa and far eastern Nebraska to Tennessee with some throughout the season in Texas (which seems to be a trend in most analogue years)

 

[Aaron Rider]

Seeing. Whole lot of 2011 also being used . Actually perhaps top analog

If Trey (Convective Chronicles) is right, the ENSO patterns are not a good match.

 

[MichelleH]

I assume this will be deleted as well.

Nope

 

[ColdFront]

Nope

Good lord Michelle, take a freaking chill pill and stop being so da** hysterical.

People posted their opinions, it’s a message board. Did they break a few rules? Yeah. Throwing a hissy fit like you usually do instead of just deleting the posts and reiterating what the rules clearly are is just going to drive people from this site. We don’t need a moderator getting “livid” and showing their *** when a few rules are broken, and for good reasons I might add.

It’s a bad look for you and you know it. You’re acting like a child and it’s just going to drive posters off this site to other forums.

 

[TornadoFan]

Good lord Michelle, take a freaking chill pill and stop being so da** hysterical.

People posted their opinions, it’s a message board. Did they break a few rules? Yeah. Throwing a hissy fit like you usually do instead of just deleting the posts and reiterating what the rules clearly are is just going to drive people from this site. We don’t need a moderator getting “livid” and showing their *** when a few rules are broken, and for good reasons I might add.

It’s a bad look for you and you know it. You’re acting like a child.

Yeah, not exactly the thing you wanna say to a moderator.

 

[ColdFront]

Yeah, not exactly the thing you wanna say to a moderator.

I really don’t care boss. We are adults here, not children in a classroom.

 

[TornadoFan]

I really don’t care boss. We are adults here, not children in a classroom.

Hope you enjoy the ban hammer.

 

[MichelleH]

Good lord Michelle, take a freaking chill pill and stop being so da** hysterical.

People posted their opinions, it’s a message board. Did they break a few rules? Yeah. Throwing a hissy fit like you usually do instead of just deleting the posts and reiterating what the rules clearly are is just going to drive people from this site. We don’t need a moderator getting “livid” and showing their *** when a few rules are broken, and for good reasons I might add.

It’s a bad look for you and you know it. You’re acting like a child and it’s just going to drive posters off this site to other forums.

Your political threads have been undeleted. I will be read-only mode for a while since I seem to usually throw "hissy fits." You know, even when I was in the hospital a few weeks ago, I was still keeping an eye on this forum, but hey, if you think you can do a better job chief, then have at it.

 

[slenker]

Hope you enjoy the ban hammer.

I don't see the reason to ban him for voicing his opinion. I think it was a bit harshly worded, but not ban-worthy.

Now, on to discussing the severe weather aspect, it's very interesting to hear the difference in what Trey is saying versus the general consensus on this forum - seems to be quite the difference.

 

[JBishopwx]

I love storms.