Severe Weather 2025

[Taylor Campbell]

@JPWX, can you please post the EURO’s 50 ensemble members forecast of the surface low and 500mb wind for 00z Wednesday March 5th.

 

[JPWX]

@JPWX, can you please post the EURO’s 50 ensemble members forecast of the surface low and 500mb wind for 00z Wednesday March 5th.

500mb map and Ensemble (1-25 and 25-50) surface lows.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

500mb map and Ensemble (1-25 and 25-50) surface lows.

Looks like the consensus with the EURO is that a low pressure system will be in a favorable/semi favorable position for severe weather in the southeast

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

500mb map and Ensemble (1-25 and 25-50) surface lows.

After going over those panels roughly, we just may have us something brewing next week ….

 

[KevinH]

Looks like the consensus with the EURO is that a low pressure system will be in a favorable/semi favorable position for severe weather in the southeast

If next week even begins to start looking like 3-3-2019

 

[UncleJuJu98]

If next week even begins to start looking like 3-3-2019

Thisll be you if it does. (But in all seriousness I don't think this event will impact the same areas with that intensity of that day )

 

[JPWX]

Well, I see my work here is done for next week.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[slenker]

18z GFS is the angriest I have ever seen. Obviously not going to happen the way it's shown, but good lord.
EDIT: I'm talking about the system that comes in after this upcoming week.

 

[Clancy]

CIPS is starting to exhibit a pretty robust signal for the roughly 3/5 time frame. GEFS showing signs of activity in that time frame, and that's quite a look on the Euro.

 

[MMWX]

Oregon Tornado Warning

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

CIPS is starting to exhibit a pretty robust signal for the roughly 3/5 time frame. GEFS showing signs of activity in that time frame, and that's quite a look on the Euro.
View attachment 34121View attachment 34122View attachment 34123View attachment 34124

oh excrement, here we go

 

[JPWX]

Oregon Tornado Warning

First Tornado Warning on record (going back to 1993) in February for NWS Portland CWA.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

First Tornado Warning on record (going back to 1993) in February for NWS Portland CWA.

wow, 2025 wants all to hath nado

 

[Taylor Campbell]

18z GFS is the angriest I have ever seen. Obviously not going to happen the way it's shown, but good lord.
EDIT: I'm talking about the system that comes in after this upcoming week.

That was wild. Too wild lol, but there have been several operational model runs show that we won’t be done with potential threats after the severe weather threat next Tuesday/Wednesday.

 

[andyhb]

I'm going to say right now, given all of the data I've seen over the past couple of weeks looking forward to March and April, there is a considerably higher chance than normal of something bad (potentially multiple somethings) happening in the Mid South/SE this year.

 

[MichelleH]

We now have a dedicated thread for next week's severe threat. (So please no one make another one!)

Severe WX - March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

I will start the thread for next week's severe threat. Looking very interesting.

talkweather.com

 

[JPWX]

I'm going to say right now, given all of the data I've seen over the past couple of weeks looking forward to March and April, there is a considerably higher chance than normal of something bad (potentially multiple somethings) happening in the Mid South/SE this year.

I agree as well based on what I'm seeing too.

 

[KevinH]

Thisll be you if it does. (But in all seriousness I don't think this event will impact the same areas with that intensity of that day )View attachment 34110

Ok fine… I don’t want repeat of that day during ANY day of that week this year… or at all for that matter lol

 

[KevinH]

CIPS is starting to exhibit a pretty robust signal for the roughly 3/5 time frame. GEFS showing signs of activity in that time frame, and that's quite a look on the Euro.
View attachment 34121View attachment 34122View attachment 34123View attachment 34124

I just freaking love your posts @Clancy!

@Clancy > Ryan Hall lol