Severe Weather 2025

[Schoeppeya]

Lots of 70 degree dews throughout Oklahoma, just mowed the lawn and can confirm it is an absolute swamp outside

 

[Maxis_s]

Reed would probably call this a wedge tornado

 

[Kds86z]

Seems like good news for chasers?

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Schoeppeya]

Moot points if storms don’t fire but I don’t think it can be overstated how favorable the environment in the Texas panhandle is going to be for producing tornados, absolute loaded gun

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Schoeppeya]

Yep looks like echoes starting to show up southeast of AMA on radar

 

[Ozonelayer]

Yep looks like echoes starting to show up southeast of AMA on radar

Also a more defined one near Hobbs, New Mexico

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[JPWX]

So anyone want to explain why this lone storm moving thru Oxford, MS doesn't have a Tornado Warning or Tornado Possible Tag on the SVRC? Clearly, the storm has broad rotation

 

[Clancy]

So anyone want to explain why this lone storm moving thru Oxford, MS doesn't have a Tornado Warning or Tornado Possible Tag on the SVRC? Clearly, the storm has broad rotation

I'd have to assume they are anticipating that meso won't make it to the ground, given a lack of low-level kinematics. Definitely producing some nasty hail, though, and if there's any rule to follow religiously, it's never trust gas after BBQ and never trust a pulse storm in Mississippi.

 

[Ozonelayer]

We have an established cell near Denver City, moving up toward the Lubbock area. Wonder what will come of this.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[slenker]

After this trough blows through, the upcoming pattern is incredibly strange and I really can't make heads or tails of it. Globals are consistent in showing another big trough digging in towards the west, but they seem to slow it down before it can fully eject at peak strength over the Plains, then have it slowly meander to the east looking much more anemic. The GFS is being extremely goofy and has been fully on-board with a trough retrograding back to the west from over the Atlantic in the past few runs starting around the ~212 hour mark, which the Euro completely disagrees with.

I will say, the trough that's being modeled that moves in after this one looks like quite the chonker, but pretty much all the globals seem to slow it down substantially before it really has a chance to do much, at least from my perspective. I'd love to hear thoughts from a MET here, the pattern is weird and I can't make sense of it, but this upcoming trough looks like trouble if it can eject fully.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Schoeppeya]

I posted this in the other thread earlier but the deeper moist layer was forecast to be very narrowly pooled along the dryline and pretty shallow east of it which I would imagine is the reason storms are firing and then failing

 

[tornado examiner]

Does anyone have a “no storms?” Megamind meme? Lol