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Severe Weather 2024

Sitting in the 10% hatched tornado region today and am honestly a bit unsure of what to expect. The trough seems to be more amplified which would suggest things go linear pretty quickly. However, I'm a bit worried that the ongoing drought in the area and the strong winds over the past few days could help keep dry air around and make things more cellular. Imo, I think SE KS into N-NW OK will be the place to watch more than the northern part of the 10%, especially if some prefrontal supercells can get going as some models have hinted at.
 
It's safe to say the northern part of the tornado risk area Atmospheric Anti-Climax today. Only 1 tornado warning in the 5% area near Atchison, KS, and 5 tornado warnings in the 2% in Central IA. No confirmed tornadoes yet from those and nothing in the 10# thankfully.
 
It doesn't take that much instability in November...

...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
quickly eastward across the northern U.S., as a cold front advances
southeastward across the eastern third of the U.S. Warming surface
temperatures ahead of the front should result in scattered
thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. The greatest
severe threat could be on Tuesday in the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley near the entrance region of the mid-level jet. The severe
threat could re-develop ahead of the front on Wednesday and
Thursday. However, instability is forecast to be weak suggesting
that any severe threat should be marginal.
 
MichelleH said:
It doesn't take that much instability in November...

...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
quickly eastward across the northern U.S., as a cold front advances
southeastward across the eastern third of the U.S. Warming surface
temperatures ahead of the front should result in scattered
thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. The greatest
severe threat could be on Tuesday in the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley near the entrance region of the mid-level jet. The severe
threat could re-develop ahead of the front on Wednesday and
Thursday. However, instability is forecast to be weak suggesting
that any severe threat should be marginal.
Click to expand...
Nope…. It sure doesn’t….

WATCHING….
 
Not sure this is TalkWeather thing or what but seems like there is a glitch somewhere preventing post being made in a timely matter.
 
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