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Severe Weather 2024

Mesoscale Discussion 1566
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

Areas affected...northern Kentucky...southern Indiana...far
southwestern Ohio

Concerning...Tornado Watch 516...

Valid 092242Z - 100015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 516 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues within WW516.

DISCUSSION...Supercells have been ongoing along and near the warm
front extending across northern Kentucky into southern Indiana. One
ongoing supercell north of Evansville, IN near Johnson, IN has
produced multiple tornadoes across northern Kentucky into southern
Indiana. A more narrow favorable corridor of tornado threat should
be maintained in the next few hours across the Indiana/Kentucky
border along the Ohio River. Within this region, the 850 mb jet will
increase and subsequently contribute to the most favorable region of
effective SRH around 200-300 m2/s2. Any semi-discrete cells that can
track northward/northwestward into this region will likely take
advantage of more favorable low-level SRH, taking on supercell
characteristics and potential for tornadoes as they track near the
warm front. This corridor will shift northeastward through the
evening across southern Indiana and eventually southwestern Ohio
through time.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/09/2024
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1720565160971.png
 
Kds86z said:
Oh that’s sick!
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cincywx said:
these are sick! my mother lives along the B/W county line and I vicariously encouraged her to take a peek towards her west... needless to say, she did the right thing by ignoring my advice and hunkering down. :)
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Thanks! It wasn't bad for an impromptu storm chase. Fortunately, I haven't heard about any reports of touchdowns/damage; just a pretty low-precipitation supercell at sunset.
 
Beyond the heat, our main focus is on a potential and rare
tornado "Outbreak" possible Wed afternoon (most of the central
and northern CWA) and late afternoon/early evening across the
Susq Valley and points east. The combination of instability and
shear parameters are as potent as any I`ve seen in the last
decade. With model guidance supporting a fairly unstable
environment by afternoon (CAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg), and eye
popping shear parameters (0-1 KM EHI as high as 3-4 M2/S2 near
and north of the I-80 corridor to the NY border) several HREF
and 3km NAM members indicating UH values over 150 across the N
Mtns, the Wed aftn storm environment is particularly supportive
of supercells and possible tornadoes.
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Not going to see a forecast discussion like this from the NWS State College office very often.
 
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