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Severe Weather 2024

Going back to @KevinH comment about a severe threat every 7 days, it kinda rings alarm bells to a infamous year and spring. Not saying it will happen or be like headed into April. The Euro Seasonal for March showed a similar 500mb pattern in April to 74 and 11. Again I'm not saying it will but still something to monitor.
 
KevinH said:
Every…..

“7 days”:eek::eek: LOL
watch me video GIF by Paramount Pictures
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And now I'm expecting to have a storm-chasing vehicle emerge from my computer screen at some point...:p
 
JPWX said:
Going back to @KevinH comment about a severe threat every 7 days, it kinda rings alarm bells to an infamous year and spring. Not saying it will happen or be like headed into April. The Euro Seasonal for March showed a similar 500mb pattern in April to 74 and 11. Again I'm not saying it will but still something to monitor.
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Every 7 days seems to be a THING with svr Wx. Maybe not 100% of the time, but frequently.
 
JPWX said:
Going back to @KevinH comment about a severe threat every 7 days, it kinda rings alarm bells to a infamous year and spring. Not saying it will happen or be like headed into April. The Euro Seasonal for March showed a similar 500mb pattern in April to 74 and 11. Again I'm not saying it will but still something to monitor.
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And I know it's a year away, but I shudder what the 1st half of '25 will be like with a raging -PDO, +TNI and what could be a significant la nina ongoing...
 
Well this is frightening and makes me sick to my stomach. Preliminary tornado count thus far this year is 103 thru March 7th. There's only one year that is closest to it.....2011 (109)

Yeah......

Again I'm not trying to scare anyone, but I'm just pointing out facts and making you aware that we could be dealing with a much busier April than the last few years.

I also know a lot of people including myself continue to suffer from trauma and PTSD from that event.

Just hope for the best, but prepare for the worse
 

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JPWX said:
Well this is frightening and makes me sick to my stomach. Preliminary tornado count thus far this year is 103 thru March 7th. There's only one year that is closest to it.....2011 (109)

Yeah......

Again I'm not trying to scare anyone, but I'm just pointing out facts and making you aware that we could be dealing with a much busier April than the last few years.

I also know a lot of people including myself continue to suffer from trauma and PTSD from that event.

Just hope for the best, but prepare for the worse
Click to expand...

Don't know quite a few myself. It may have been 12 years ago, but they feel like it was yesterday, especially after Amory had to tornado last year.
 
JPWX said:
Well this is frightening and makes me sick to my stomach. Preliminary tornado count thus far this year is 103 thru March 7th. There's only one year that is closest to it.....2011 (109)

Yeah......

Again I'm not trying to scare anyone, but I'm just pointing out facts and making you aware that we could be dealing with a much busier April than the last few years.

I also know a lot of people including myself continue to suffer from trauma and PTSD from that event.

Just hope for the best, but prepare for the worse
Click to expand...
Sure feels like been more of a quiet year , to me. guess nothing really big just yet
 
JPWX said:
Well this is frightening and makes me sick to my stomach. Preliminary tornado count thus far this year is 103 thru March 7th. There's only one year that is closest to it.....2011 (109)

Yeah......

Again I'm not trying to scare anyone, but I'm just pointing out facts and making you aware that we could be dealing with a much busier April than the last few years.

I also know a lot of people including myself continue to suffer from trauma and PTSD from that event.

Just hope for the best, but prepare for the worse
Click to expand...
So given this, are there any particular analogs that stand out in terms of climate environment and teleconnections this year?
 
Some pretty extraordinary probs on CIPS for the mid-range; don't have any super recent memories of probs that substantial and of this areal coverage. GEFS/GFS is also rather robust over a lot of the Deep South on 3/15. CSU also with a fairly strong signal. No slam dunk but I'd argue this one is very much worth keeping an eye on. Zonal orientation of this threat could possibly limit the intensity due to convection junking up the environment, but we'll have to see. Also may be a threat on the heels of 3/15 around 3/17 or so.
PRALLC01_gefsF168.pngPRALLC10_gefsF168.pngPRTORNC01_gefsF168.png
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severe_fcst_6panel_031012.png
 
Clancy said:
Some pretty extraordinary probs on CIPS for the mid-range; don't have any super recent memories of probs that substantial and of this areal coverage. GEFS/GFS is also rather robust over a lot of the Deep South on 3/15. CSU also with a fairly strong signal. No slam dunk but I'd argue this one is very much worth keeping an eye on. Zonal orientation of this threat could possibly limit the intensity due to convection junking up the environment, but we'll have to see. Also may be a threat on the heels of 3/15 around 3/17 or so.
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It's impressive. We shall see
 
Clancy said:
Some pretty extraordinary probs on CIPS for the mid-range; don't have any super recent memories of probs that substantial and of this areal coverage. GEFS/GFS is also rather robust over a lot of the Deep South on 3/15. CSU also with a fairly strong signal. No slam dunk but I'd argue this one is very much worth keeping an eye on. Zonal orientation of this threat could possibly limit the intensity due to convection junking up the environment, but we'll have to see. Also may be a threat on the heels of 3/15 around 3/17 or so.
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Like see better moisture return first
 
Clancy said:
Some pretty extraordinary probs on CIPS for the mid-range; don't have any super recent memories of probs that substantial and of this areal coverage. GEFS/GFS is also rather robust over a lot of the Deep South on 3/15. CSU also with a fairly strong signal. No slam dunk but I'd argue this one is very much worth keeping an eye on. Zonal orientation of this threat could possibly limit the intensity due to convection junking up the environment, but we'll have to see. Also may be a threat on the heels of 3/15 around 3/17 or so.
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Don't get me excited for another dud ;)
 
Late Marches that had more tornado activity than early/mid March:

2000
2002
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2014
2015
2016
2017
2020
2021
2023
 
With the exception of 2004, three of those years I used as analogs in making my hurricane forecast:

2005
2020
2017
 
Significant severe weather or not late this week, someone is gonna get a ton of rainfall
 

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